Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 15:30
Full timeSV Werder Bremen 3:2 FC Augsburg
SV Werder Bremen were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was SV Werder Bremen's attack: 2.78 xG against 1.82 projected (+0.96).
Goals
- 18' Robin Fellhauer FC Augsburg · 0.67 xG chance 0–1
- 58' Calvin Brackelmann FC Augsburg · 0.09 xG chance 0–2
- 66' Marco Grüll SV Werder Bremen · 0.16 xG chance 1–2
- 86' Niclas Füllkrug SV Werder Bremen · 0.08 xG chance 2–2
- 90' Mitchell Weiser SV Werder Bremen · 0.06 xG chance 3–2
The model against the result
- SV Werder Bremen
- 48% What happened
- Draw
- 27%
- FC Augsburg
- 25%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
SV Werder Bremen produced 0.96 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 6
- On target
- 10
- 4
- Inside the box
- 17
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.16
- Open play xG
- 1.84
- 0.88
- Set-piece xG
- 0.28
- 0.09
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.15 for SV Werder Bremen and 0.95 for FC Augsburg.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
26 shots · 3.09 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SV Werder Bremen
- FC Augsburg
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.91 xG created 1.99 xGA
- L 1.35 created, 2.57 conceded against FC Augsburg
- L 1.07 created, 1.52 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
- L 0.49 created, 2.74 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
- L 0.48 created, 1.94 conceded against SC Freiburg
- W 0.95 created, 1.50 conceded against RB Leipzig
- D 1.12 created, 1.65 conceded against 1. FC Köln
1.92 xG created 2.10 xGA
- W 2.57 created, 1.35 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
- W 2.59 created, 1.14 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
- L 0.61 created, 3.68 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
- W 3.52 created, 1.54 conceded against FC Schalke 04
- W 1.13 created, 2.22 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
- D 1.11 created, 2.64 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg not to score | 5.00 | +22.0% | Lost |
| SV Werder Bremen to win | 2.35 | +13.9% | Won |
| FC Augsburg at most 1 goal | 1.83 | +13.0% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | +3.2% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.80 | +1.5% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 3.00 | +0.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen | 48.5% | 40.2% | +8.3 pp | 2.06 |
| Draw | 26.7% | 24.8% | +1.9 pp | 3.74 |
| FC Augsburg | 24.8% | 35.0% | −10.1 pp | 4.03 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen to score | 86.2% | 82.8% | +3.4 pp | 1.16 |
| SV Werder Bremen not to score | 13.8% | 17.2% | −3.4 pp | 7.22 |
| FC Augsburg to score | 75.6% | 81.1% | −5.5 pp | 1.32 |
| FC Augsburg not to score | 24.4% | 18.9% | +5.5 pp | 4.10 |
| Both teams to score | 66.6% | 68.7% | −2.2 pp | 1.50 |
| Both teams not to score | 33.4% | 31.3% | +2.2 pp | 2.99 |
| SV Werder Bremen 2+ goals | 56.4% | 53.7% | +2.7 pp | 1.77 |
| SV Werder Bremen at most 1 goal | 43.6% | 46.3% | −2.7 pp | 2.29 |
| FC Augsburg 2+ goals | 38.3% | 50.0% | −11.7 pp | 2.61 |
| FC Augsburg at most 1 goal | 61.7% | 50.0% | +11.7 pp | 1.62 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.6% | 84.2% | +1.4 pp | 1.17 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.4% | 15.8% | −1.4 pp | 6.97 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.5% | 65.6% | −3.1 pp | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.5% | 34.4% | +3.1 pp | 2.66 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SV Werder Bremen sample
- 20 matches
- FC Augsburg sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.