SC Paderborn 07 0:1 SC Freiburg: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 15:30

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Match report · Bundesliga

SC Paderborn 07 Home 0.77 xG · 14 shots

SC Freiburg Away 1.24 xG · 16 shots

01 The scoreline reflected the chances

SC Paderborn 07 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. SC Freiburg won 1–0. The biggest difference was SC Paderborn 07's attack: 0.77 xG against 1.68 projected (−0.91).

Goals

26' Maximilian Eggestein SC Freiburg · 0.18 xG chance 0–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

SC Paderborn 07: 48%
Draw: 28%
SC Freiburg: 23% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

SC Paderborn 07 1.68 0.77 -0.91

SC Freiburg 1.16 1.24 +0.08

SC Paderborn 07 produced 0.91 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

SC Paderborn 07 SC Freiburg

Shots: 14; 16
On target: 3; 5
Inside the box: 6; 9
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.08
Open play xG: 0.59; 1.21
Set-piece xG: 0.14; 0.07
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.72 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.29 for SC Freiburg.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 2.01 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

SC Paderborn 07
SC Freiburg
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

SC Paderborn 07

0.73 xG created 1.23 xGA

D 0.73 created, 1.23 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05

SC Freiburg

1.18 xG created 1.58 xGA

W 1.62 created, 1.58 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
L 0.76 created, 3.37 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
D 0.94 created, 0.82 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
L 0.41 created, 1.98 conceded against Hamburger SV
W 1.41 created, 1.24 conceded against RB Leipzig
W 1.94 created, 0.48 conceded against SV Werder Bremen

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged2 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on SC Paderborn 07 against SC Freiburg before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
SC Paderborn 07 to win	3.80	+83.9%	Lost
SC Freiburg not to score	5.00	+43.4%	Lost
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals	2.50	+29.6%	Lost
SC Freiburg at most 1 goal	1.91	+28.7%	Won
SC Paderborn 07 to score	1.30	+9.0%	Lost
Draw	3.75	+5.7%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.30	+2.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SC Paderborn 07	48.4%	25.0%	+23.4 pp	2.07
Draw	28.2%	25.3%	+2.9 pp	3.55
SC Freiburg	23.4%	49.7%	−26.3 pp	4.27

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SC Paderborn 07 to score	83.9%	72.3%	+11.5 pp	1.19
SC Paderborn 07 not to score	16.1%	27.7%	−11.5 pp	6.20
SC Freiburg to score	71.3%	81.1%	−9.7 pp	1.40
SC Freiburg not to score	28.7%	18.9%	+9.7 pp	3.49
Both teams to score	61.4%	58.9%	+2.5 pp	1.63
Both teams not to score	38.6%	41.1%	−2.5 pp	2.59
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals	51.9%	37.5%	+14.4 pp	1.93
SC Paderborn 07 at most 1 goal	48.1%	62.5%	−14.4 pp	2.08
SC Freiburg 2+ goals	32.6%	51.5%	−18.9 pp	3.07
SC Freiburg at most 1 goal	67.4%	48.5%	+18.9 pp	1.48
Over 1.5 goals	81.6%	78.9%	+2.6 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.4%	21.1%	−2.6 pp	5.42
Over 2.5 goals	55.6%	58.7%	−3.2 pp	1.80
Under 2.5 goals	44.4%	41.3%	+3.2 pp	2.25

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
SC Paderborn 07 sample: 1 match
SC Freiburg sample: 20 matches
Computed: 29 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 30 minutes before kick-off

Warnings

SC Paderborn 07 has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.