RB Leipzig 5:0 Hamburger SV: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 15:30

Full time

Match report · Bundesliga

RB Leipzig Home 2.43 xG · 19 shots

Hamburger SV Away 1.10 xG · 10 shots

50 The scoreline reflected the chances

RB Leipzig were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 67%. They won 5–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

Goals

17' Tidiam Gomis RB Leipzig · 0.21 xG chance 1–0
28' Antonio Nusa RB Leipzig · 0.05 xG chance 2–0
72' Willi Orbán RB Leipzig · 0.53 xG chance 3–0
74' Christopher Nkunku RB Leipzig · 0.16 xG chance 4–0
77' Rômulo RB Leipzig · 0.56 xG chance 5–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

RB Leipzig: 67% What happened
Draw: 21%
Hamburger SV: 12%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

RB Leipzig 2.37 2.43 +0.06

Hamburger SV 1.04 1.10 +0.06

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

RB Leipzig Hamburger SV

Shots: 19; 10
On target: 6; 4
Inside the box: 12; 7
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.09
Open play xG: 1.70; 0.70
Set-piece xG: 0.71; 0.23
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.39 for RB Leipzig and 0.94 for Hamburger SV.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 3.34 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

RB Leipzig
Hamburger SV
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

RB Leipzig

2.29 xG created 1.47 xGA

W 4.49 created, 0.19 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
L 1.17 created, 4.42 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
W 1.37 created, 0.79 conceded against FC St. Pauli
L 1.24 created, 1.41 conceded against SC Freiburg
W 3.96 created, 1.09 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
L 1.50 created, 0.95 conceded against SV Werder Bremen

Hamburger SV

1.14 xG created 1.68 xGA

L 1.37 created, 1.45 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
W 0.62 created, 0.65 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
W 1.98 created, 0.41 conceded against SC Freiburg
D 1.79 created, 3.27 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
L 0.91 created, 1.53 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
L 0.19 created, 2.77 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

RB Leipzig: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on RB Leipzig against Hamburger SV before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	5.50	+12.9%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.50	+10.8%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.62	+2.5%	Lost
RB Leipzig at most 1 goal	3.50	+2.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
RB Leipzig	67.1%	71.0%	−3.9 pp	1.49
Draw	20.5%	17.2%	+3.3 pp	4.87
Hamburger SV	12.4%	11.8%	+0.6 pp	8.05

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
RB Leipzig to score	92.3%	91.3%	+1.0 pp	1.08
RB Leipzig not to score	7.7%	8.7%	−1.0 pp	12.94
Hamburger SV to score	67.6%	64.5%	+3.1 pp	1.48
Hamburger SV not to score	32.4%	35.5%	−3.1 pp	3.09
Both teams to score	63.5%	57.7%	+5.8 pp	1.57
Both teams not to score	36.5%	42.3%	−5.8 pp	2.74
RB Leipzig 2+ goals	70.8%	73.1%	−2.3 pp	1.41
RB Leipzig at most 1 goal	29.2%	26.9%	+2.3 pp	3.43
Hamburger SV 2+ goals	28.0%	27.7%	+0.3 pp	3.57
Hamburger SV at most 1 goal	72.0%	72.3%	−0.3 pp	1.39
Over 1.5 goals	88.6%	88.1%	+0.5 pp	1.13
Under 1.5 goals	11.4%	11.9%	−0.5 pp	8.77
Over 2.5 goals	68.3%	72.9%	−4.6 pp	1.46
Under 2.5 goals	31.7%	27.1%	+4.6 pp	3.16

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
RB Leipzig sample: 20 matches
Hamburger SV sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.