Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
SC Paderborn 07 – SV Werder Bremen
Model updated 4 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- SC Paderborn 07
- 38%
- Draw
- 31%
- SV Werder Bremen
- 31%
| SC Paderborn 07 | Draw | SV Werder Bremen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.65 | 3.22 | 3.20 |
- Total goals
- 2.59
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans SC Paderborn 07
38% SC Paderborn 07 to win
- Attack
- 17th vs 4th
- SC Paderborn 07 attack v SV Werder Bremen defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 16th
- SC Paderborn 07 defence v SV Werder Bremen attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.77 vs -0.60
- xGD per match, last 4
- Projected goals
- 1.36 – 1.23
- SC Paderborn 07 v SV Werder Bremen
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 4 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | SC Paderborn 07 | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.67 · 18th from 4 matches | (better) 1.33 · 14th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.43 · 6th from 4 matches | 1.55 · 8th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.77 · 13th from 4 matches | (better) -0.22 · 10th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.72 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) 1.16 · 10th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.77 from 4 matches | (better) -0.60 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet
- 26%
- SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals
- 40%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.8%
- 2:1
- 10.0%
- 1:2
- 8.9%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SC Paderborn 07 sample
- 4 matches
- SV Werder Bremen sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · SC Paderborn 07
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · SV Werder Bremen
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 21:30
Warnings
- SC Paderborn 07 has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.