Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 15:30
27d 15h to kick-offSV Werder Bremen – TSG Hoffenheim
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- SV Werder Bremen
- 37%
- Draw
- 29%
- TSG Hoffenheim
- 33%
| SV Werder Bremen | Draw | TSG Hoffenheim | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.67 | 3.43 | 3.00 |
- Total goals
- 2.89
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
37% SV Werder Bremen to win
- Attack
- 16th vs 8th
- SV Werder Bremen attack v TSG Hoffenheim defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 6th
- SV Werder Bremen defence v TSG Hoffenheim attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.60 vs +0.23
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.49 – 1.40
- SV Werder Bremen v TSG Hoffenheim
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | SV Werder Bremen | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.33 · 14th from 4 matches | (better) 1.83 · 9th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.55 · 8th from 4 matches | 1.70 · 9th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.22 · 10th from 4 matches | (better) +0.13 · 7th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.16 · 10th from 4 matches | (better) 1.48 · 7th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.60 | (better) +0.23 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- SV Werder Bremen clean sheet
- 22%
- SV Werder Bremen 2+ goals
- 45%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.3%
- 2:1
- 9.9%
- 1:2
- 9.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SV Werder Bremen sample
- 20 matches
- TSG Hoffenheim sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · SV Werder Bremen
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · TSG Hoffenheim
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.