SV 07 Elversberg 1:2 FC Bayern München: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 17:30

Full time

Match report · Bundesliga

SV 07 Elversberg Home 0.94 xG · 5 shots

FC Bayern München Away 2.83 xG · 28 shots

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC Bayern München were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was FC Bayern München's attack: 2.83 xG against 2.16 projected (+0.67). SV 07 Elversberg produced 0.94 xG against 1.56 projected (−0.62).

Goals

26' Lennart Karl FC Bayern München · 0.22 xG chance 0–1
61' Maurice Krattenmacher SV 07 Elversberg · 0.09 xG chance 1–1
72' Harry Kane FC Bayern München · 0.11 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

SV 07 Elversberg: 25%
Draw: 24%
FC Bayern München: 51% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

SV 07 Elversberg 1.56 0.94 -0.62

FC Bayern München 2.16 2.83 +0.67

FC Bayern München produced 0.67 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

SV 07 Elversberg FC Bayern München

Shots: 5; 28
On target: 1; 5
Inside the box: 3; 16
xG per shot: 0.19; 0.09
Open play xG: 0.96; 2.25
Set-piece xG: 0.00; 0.18
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.94 for SV 07 Elversberg and 2.43 for FC Bayern München.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

33 shots · 3.39 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

SV 07 Elversberg
FC Bayern München
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

SV 07 Elversberg

1.79 xG created 2.12 xGA

W 1.27 created, 1.88 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
W 2.31 created, 2.36 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach

FC Bayern München

2.57 xG created 1.72 xGA

W 2.21 created, 2.69 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
D 2.31 created, 2.59 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
W 1.85 created, 3.04 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
W 3.05 created, 0.98 conceded against 1. FC Köln
W 4.06 created, 0.79 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
D 1.94 created, 0.21 conceded against FC Schalke 04

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged2 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on SV 07 Elversberg against FC Bayern München before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
SV 07 Elversberg to win	13.00	+231.0%	Lost
FC Bayern München at most 1 goal	7.00	+138.6%	Lost
Draw	9.50	+126.6%	Lost
FC Bayern München not to score	23.00	+120.8%	Lost
SV 07 Elversberg 2+ goals	3.40	+62.4%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	6.00	+55.0%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	15.00	+26.4%	Lost
SV 07 Elversberg to score	1.50	+22.5%	Won
Both teams to score	1.53	+14.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SV 07 Elversberg	25.5%	7.3%	+18.2 pp	3.93
Draw	23.9%	10.0%	+13.9 pp	4.19
FC Bayern München	50.7%	82.8%	−32.1 pp	1.97

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SV 07 Elversberg to score	81.7%	62.5%	+19.2 pp	1.22
SV 07 Elversberg not to score	18.3%	37.5%	−19.2 pp	5.45
FC Bayern München to score	90.4%	95.8%	−5.4 pp	1.11
FC Bayern München not to score	9.6%	4.2%	+5.4 pp	10.42
Both teams to score	74.9%	60.8%	+14.1 pp	1.34
Both teams not to score	25.1%	39.2%	−14.1 pp	3.98
SV 07 Elversberg 2+ goals	47.8%	27.7%	+20.1 pp	2.09
SV 07 Elversberg at most 1 goal	52.2%	72.3%	−20.1 pp	1.91
FC Bayern München 2+ goals	65.9%	86.4%	−20.5 pp	1.52
FC Bayern München at most 1 goal	34.1%	13.6%	+20.5 pp	2.93
Over 1.5 goals	91.6%	93.6%	−2.0 pp	1.09
Under 1.5 goals	8.4%	6.4%	+2.0 pp	11.87
Over 2.5 goals	74.2%	84.2%	−10.0 pp	1.35
Under 2.5 goals	25.8%	15.8%	+10.0 pp	3.87

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
SV 07 Elversberg sample: 2 matches
FC Bayern München sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Warnings

SV 07 Elversberg has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.