Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 19:30
35d 15h to kick-offTSG Hoffenheim – FC Schalke 04
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- TSG Hoffenheim
- 59%
- Draw
- 23%
- FC Schalke 04
- 18%
| TSG Hoffenheim | Draw | FC Schalke 04 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.68 | 4.35 | 5.67 |
- Total goals
- 3.43
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69%
- Both teams to score
- 68%
One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans TSG Hoffenheim
59% TSG Hoffenheim to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 15th
- TSG Hoffenheim attack v FC Schalke 04 defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 14th
- TSG Hoffenheim defence v FC Schalke 04 attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.23 vs -0.78
- xGD per match, last 4
- Projected goals
- 2.21 – 1.22
- TSG Hoffenheim v FC Schalke 04
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 4 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | TSG Hoffenheim | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.83 · 9th from 4 matches | 1.32 · 15th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.70 · 9th from 4 matches | 2.11 · 14th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.13 · 7th from 4 matches | -0.79 · 14th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.48 · 7th from 4 matches | 0.92 · 14th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.23 | -0.78 from 4 matches |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- TSG Hoffenheim clean sheet
- 27%
- TSG Hoffenheim 2+ goals
- 67%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 31%
- Both teams to score: no
- 32%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 11.0%
- 1:1
- 10.3%
- 3:1
- 8.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- TSG Hoffenheim sample
- 20 matches
- FC Schalke 04 sample
- 4 matches
- Home xG sample · TSG Hoffenheim
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Schalke 04
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Warnings
- FC Schalke 04 has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.