Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 17:30
14d 12h to kick-offBorussia M'gladbach – TSG Hoffenheim
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Borussia M'gladbach
- 32%
- Draw
- 27%
- TSG Hoffenheim
- 41%
| Borussia M'gladbach | Draw | TSG Hoffenheim | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.12 | 3.75 | 2.42 |
- Total goals
- 3.32
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67%
- Both teams to score
- 71%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans TSG Hoffenheim
41% TSG Hoffenheim to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 16th
- TSG Hoffenheim attack v Borussia M'gladbach defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 12th
- TSG Hoffenheim defence v Borussia M'gladbach attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.23 vs -1.11
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.55 – 1.76
- Borussia M'gladbach v TSG Hoffenheim
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Borussia M'gladbach | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.72 · joint 10th from 4 matches | (better) 1.83 · 9th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 2.92 · 18th from 4 matches | (better) 1.70 · 9th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -1.20 · 17th from 4 matches | (better) +0.13 · 7th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.83 · 15th from 4 matches | (better) 1.48 · 7th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.11 | (better) +0.23 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- TSG Hoffenheim clean sheet
- 18%
- TSG Hoffenheim 2+ goals
- 54%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 33%
- Both teams to score: no
- 29%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.8%
- 1:2
- 9.9%
- 2:1
- 8.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Borussia M'gladbach sample
- 20 matches
- TSG Hoffenheim sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Borussia M'gladbach
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · TSG Hoffenheim
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.