Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 15:30
Full timeTSG Hoffenheim 2:1 VfB Stuttgart
TSG Hoffenheim were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was TSG Hoffenheim's attack: 2.76 xG against 1.93 projected (+0.83). VfB Stuttgart produced 2.16 xG against 1.46 projected (+0.70).
Goals
- 13' Adam Hložek TSG Hoffenheim · 0.43 xG chance 1–0
- 48' Maximilian Mittelstädt VfB Stuttgart · 0.20 xG chance 1–1
- 67' Adam Hložek TSG Hoffenheim · 0.37 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- TSG Hoffenheim
- 48% What happened
- Draw
- 26%
- VfB Stuttgart
- 27%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
TSG Hoffenheim produced 0.83 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 16
- On target
- 8
- 5
- Inside the box
- 12
- 13
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.14
- Open play xG
- 2.57
- 1.26
- Set-piece xG
- 0.09
- 0.97
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.60 for TSG Hoffenheim and 2.23 for VfB Stuttgart.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
36 shots · 4.89 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- TSG Hoffenheim
- VfB Stuttgart
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.68 xG created 1.53 xGA
- W 1.45 created, 1.37 conceded against Hamburger SV
- D 2.47 created, 1.57 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
- W 1.52 created, 1.07 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
- L 1.62 created, 1.20 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
- L 1.88 created, 1.95 conceded against 1. FC Köln
- L 1.17 created, 2.02 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
2.00 xG created 2.24 xGA
- D 1.82 created, 0.93 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
- D 1.57 created, 2.47 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
- W 3.04 created, 0.54 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- D 1.32 created, 2.56 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
- L 0.79 created, 4.06 conceded against FC Bayern München
- W 3.47 created, 2.86 conceded against 1. FC Köln
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged2 won3 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart not to score | 6.00 | +23.6% | Lost |
| VfB Stuttgart at most 1 goal | 2.10 | +17.3% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.50 | +11.9% | Lost |
| TSG Hoffenheim to win | 2.20 | +4.6% | Won |
| Draw | 4.00 | +2.5% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG Hoffenheim | 47.6% | 43.2% | +4.4 pp | 2.10 |
| Draw | 25.6% | 23.8% | +1.9 pp | 3.90 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 26.8% | 33.1% | −6.2 pp | 3.73 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG Hoffenheim to score | 87.6% | 85.4% | +2.2 pp | 1.14 |
| TSG Hoffenheim not to score | 12.4% | 14.6% | −2.2 pp | 8.09 |
| VfB Stuttgart to score | 79.4% | 84.2% | −4.8 pp | 1.26 |
| VfB Stuttgart not to score | 20.6% | 15.8% | +4.8 pp | 4.85 |
| Both teams to score | 70.9% | 72.3% | −1.5 pp | 1.41 |
| Both teams not to score | 29.1% | 27.7% | +1.5 pp | 3.43 |
| TSG Hoffenheim 2+ goals | 59.6% | 57.7% | +1.9 pp | 1.68 |
| TSG Hoffenheim at most 1 goal | 40.4% | 42.3% | −1.9 pp | 2.48 |
| VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals | 44.1% | 55.7% | −11.6 pp | 2.27 |
| VfB Stuttgart at most 1 goal | 55.9% | 44.3% | +11.6 pp | 1.79 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.6% | 88.1% | +0.5 pp | 1.13 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 11.4% | 11.9% | −0.5 pp | 8.78 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.0% | 72.9% | −4.9 pp | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.0% | 27.1% | +4.9 pp | 3.13 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- TSG Hoffenheim sample
- 20 matches
- VfB Stuttgart sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 36 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 36 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.