VfB Stuttgart 3:1 1. FC Köln: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Saturday, 14/02/2026 at 18:30

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Match report · Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart Home 2.24 xG · 13 shots

1. FC Köln Away 1.59 xG · 10 shots

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

15' Ermedin Demirović VfB Stuttgart · 0.44 xG chance 1–0
79' Ragnar Ache 1. FC Köln · 0.74 xG chance 1–1
84' Ermedin Demirović VfB Stuttgart · 0.35 xG chance 2–1
90' Deniz Undav VfB Stuttgart · 0.24 xG chance 3–1

The shots behind it

VfB Stuttgart 1. FC Köln

Shots: 13; 10
On target: 4; 3
Inside the box: 8; 9
xG per shot: 0.17; 0.15
Open play xG: 2.14; 1.43
Set-piece xG: 0.09; 0.11
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.24 for VfB Stuttgart and 1.59 for 1. FC Köln.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

23 shots · 3.77 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

VfB Stuttgart
1. FC Köln
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

VfB Stuttgart

1.88 xG created 1.38 xGA

W 2.60 created, 1.96 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
W 2.31 created, 0.98 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
D 2.05 created, 1.71 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
W 1.83 created, 1.17 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
W 1.62 created, 0.70 conceded against SC Freiburg
L 0.88 created, 1.77 conceded against FC St. Pauli

1. FC Köln

1.56 xG created 1.73 xGA

D 2.99 created, 1.93 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
L 0.72 created, 1.50 conceded against FC Bayern München
W 2.08 created, 1.52 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
L 1.29 created, 2.23 conceded against SC Freiburg
W 1.24 created, 1.27 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
L 1.05 created, 1.92 conceded against RB Leipzig

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

VfB Stuttgart: 1 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

1. FC Köln 1:2 VfB Stuttgart 28/09/2025 xG 1.13 – 1.87

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.