What Derby County have left to play in Championship 2026/2027, soonest first. Open a match for the projection behind it and the prices standing against it.
Fixture outlook
7 matches ahead in Championship
Every club's remaining calendar is a different length, so there is nothing of equal length to place the whole of this one against.
What the fixtures say
The run of 7 matches ahead of Derby County in Championship rates 3.4 of 5 for difficulty, which the scale calls Balanced. 3 of them rate harder than balanced, and nothing in the run rates easier. The model expects 1.19 projected xG a match from them and 8.1 of the 21 points the priced fixtures could return. The hardest of them is Wolverhampton away, banded 4 of 5 — Difficult, against an attack rated 68/99 and a defence rated 78/99.
The run at a glance
Watford home Sat 28/11
Projected xG 1.52 – 1.13 Derby County win 45%
Wolverhampton away Tue 24/11
Projected xG 0.88 – 1.73 Derby County win 16%
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Open the match page for Sheffield United
Sat 24/10 Away Sheffield United Championship
3 Balanced Opponent: attack 34/99, defence 33/99Projected xG 1.19 – 1.31 Projected xPts 1.25- Sheffield United
- 37%
- Draw
- 32%
- Derby County
- 31%
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Open the match page for Millwall
Sat 31/10 Away Millwall Championship
4 Difficult Opponent: attack 68/99, defence 54/99Projected xG 1.05 – 1.73 Projected xPts 0.88- Millwall
- 52%
- Draw
- 28%
- Derby County
- 20%
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Open the match page for Norwich City
Tue 03/11 Home Norwich City Championship
3 Balanced Opponent: attack 49/99, defence 54/99Projected xG 1.25 – 1.26 Projected xPts 1.33- Derby County
- 34%
- Draw
- 32%
- Norwich City
- 34%
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Open the match page for Bolton Wanderers
Fri 06/11 Home Bolton Wanderers Championship
3 Balanced Opponent: attack 50/99, defence 44/99Projected xG 1.32 – 1.27 Projected xPts 1.38- Derby County
- 36%
- Draw
- 31%
- Bolton Wanderers
- 33%
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Open the match page for Southampton
Sat 21/11 Away Southampton Championship
4 Difficult Opponent: attack 70/99, defence 48/99Projected xG 1.09 – 1.75 Projected xPts 0.90- Southampton
- 52%
- Draw
- 27%
- Derby County
- 21%
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Open the match page for Wolverhampton
Tue 24/11 Away Wolverhampton Championship
4 Difficult Opponent: attack 68/99, defence 78/99Projected xG 0.88 – 1.73 Projected xPts 0.75- Wolverhampton
- 57%
- Draw
- 27%
- Derby County
- 16%
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Open the match page for Watford
Sat 28/11 Home Watford Championship
3 Balanced Opponent: attack 36/99, defence 22/99Projected xG 1.52 – 1.13 Projected xPts 1.64- Derby County
- 45%
- Draw
- 30%
- Watford
- 25%
Championship publishes only its next few rounds, so the list stops here. The rest of the season is added as the league schedules it.
The band is how hard the model rates each match, from 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest). Opponent attack and defence use the same 1–99 scale as Team Strength, where 50 is the average side in Championship.
Fixture difficulty in Championship
Reads each matchup for Derby County: the band is cut from the model's chances of Derby County winning and losing the match, so Derby County's own strength and home advantage are in it.
Every club's remaining calendar is a different length, so there is nothing of equal length to place the whole of this one against.
Upcoming opponent strength
tied number 11 hardest of 24 in Championship
+0.02 xG vs league average
Over 5 upcoming league fixtures
Reads the opponents alone, whoever plays them: each one's fitted xG margin against Championship's average club, with no venue and nothing of Derby County's own strength in it.
Opponents behind the figure
Upcoming
+0.02 xG vs league average · over 5 fixtures · tied number 11 hardest of 24
- Sheffield United Away −0.31
- Millwall Away +0.22
- Norwich City Home +0.02
- Bolton Wanderers Home −0.05
- Southampton Away +0.19
About these numbers
What is published, what is worked out, and what is the model's
Published by the fixtures feed and stored as it arrives: the kickoff time, the two clubs, the competition, and whether a match is still scheduled.
Worked out here from stored figures: each opponent's attack and defence on a 1–99 scale, where 50 is the average side in Championship and a higher score is a stronger side at both ends; the difficulty band, cut from the model's chances of winning and losing each fixture; and everything the outlook, the strip and the fixture difficulty block add up from the rows — the run's mean band, its averages and totals, the counts they were taken over, the placings and the competition's average.
Worked out here from the model's ratings alone: the Upcoming opponent strength block, the mean of the next 5 opponents' fitted xG margins against the league's average club, whoever plays them, and its rank among the competition's clubs.
The model's output, for matches nobody has played yet: projected xG and xGA, the chances of a win, a draw and a loss, and xPts.
Projected xG is what the model expects a side to create in a match still to come. It is not the xG on the Results page, which measures the chances a side actually had.
xPts is what those three chances are worth in points: 3 times the chance of a win plus the chance of a draw, so 3 is the most a single fixture can be worth.
The difficulty band runs from 1, the most favourable fixture, to 5, the least favourable — so the lower a run's difficulty, the kinder the run.