xgEdge

Expected goals

Derby County expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Championship · after 11 matches · updated 21 Oct

Derby County's attacking and defensive expected goals in Championship 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Derby County xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.96 xG per match
#23/24
Attack (xG per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 West Ham United 2.16
#2 Middlesbrough 1.98
#3 Cardiff City 1.88
#4 Millwall 1.85
#5 Southampton 1.83
#6 Birmingham City 1.77
#7 Wolverhampton 1.71
#8 Swansea City 1.60
#9 Queens Park Rangers 1.50
#10 Norwich City 1.47
#11 Bolton Wanderers 1.40
#12 Portsmouth 1.35
#13 Bristol City 1.32
#14 West Bromwich Albion 1.29
#15 Lincoln City 1.25
#16 Preston North End 1.24
#17 Burnley 1.23
#18 Watford 1.13
#19 Wrexham 1.12
#20 Sheffield United 1.06
#21 Charlton Athletic 1.00
#22 Blackburn Rovers 0.98
#23 Derby County 0.96
#24 Stoke City 0.90
League avg
1.42
Total
10.55 11 matches
Defence
1.65 xGA per match
#20/24
Defence (xGA per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Wolverhampton 0.99
#2 Middlesbrough 1.02
#3 Swansea City 1.14
#4 Portsmouth 1.17
=5 West Ham United 1.18
=5 Wrexham 1.18
#7 Queens Park Rangers 1.20
#8 Birmingham City 1.23
#9 Southampton 1.31
#10 Bristol City 1.35
#11 Millwall 1.37
#12 Lincoln City 1.37
#13 West Bromwich Albion 1.44
#14 Preston North End 1.46
#15 Sheffield United 1.49
#16 Charlton Athletic 1.57
#17 Norwich City 1.60
#18 Burnley 1.62
#19 Cardiff City 1.63
#20 Derby County 1.65
#21 Bolton Wanderers 1.69
#22 Stoke City 1.71
#23 Blackburn Rovers 1.72
#24 Watford 1.88
League avg
1.42
Total
18.12 11 matches
xG difference
-0.69 xGD per match
#21/24
xG difference (xGD per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 West Ham United +0.99
#2 Middlesbrough +0.96
#3 Wolverhampton +0.73
#4 Birmingham City +0.53
#5 Southampton +0.53
#6 Millwall +0.48
#7 Swansea City +0.46
#8 Queens Park Rangers +0.30
#9 Cardiff City +0.25
#10 Portsmouth +0.18
#11 Bristol City -0.03
#12 Wrexham -0.05
#13 Lincoln City -0.13
#14 Norwich City -0.14
#15 West Bromwich Albion -0.15
#16 Preston North End -0.22
#17 Bolton Wanderers -0.30
#18 Burnley -0.40
#19 Sheffield United -0.43
#20 Charlton Athletic -0.57
#21 Derby County -0.69
#22 Blackburn Rovers -0.74
#23 Watford -0.75
#24 Stoke City -0.81
League avg
0.00
Total
-7.57 11 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.07 xPts per match
#18/24
Expected points (xPts per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Middlesbrough 2.03
#2 Wolverhampton 1.90
#3 West Ham United 1.89
#4 Birmingham City 1.75
#5 Southampton 1.73
#6 Millwall 1.68
#7 Swansea City 1.63
#8 Queens Park Rangers 1.61
#9 Cardiff City 1.51
#10 Portsmouth 1.51
#11 Bristol City 1.44
#12 Wrexham 1.40
#13 Lincoln City 1.37
#14 Norwich City 1.26
#15 West Bromwich Albion 1.25
#16 Preston North End 1.20
#17 Bolton Wanderers 1.15
#18 Derby County 1.07
#19 Sheffield United 1.07
#20 Burnley 1.05
#21 Charlton Athletic 1.00
#22 Stoke City 0.91
#23 Blackburn Rovers 0.89
#24 Watford 0.88
League avg
1.38
Total
11.78 vs 6 actual pts

What the xG says

Derby County's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Championship. They rank #21 for xG difference at -0.69 per match, from about average shot volume at low chance quality. Their 9 goals are 1.55 below 10.55 xG, while 6 points are 5.78 below 11.78 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.85 xG from penalties
9 10.55 -1.55 scored 1.55 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
20 18.12 +1.88 conceded 1.88 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
6 11.78 -5.78 5.78 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Derby County are 1.55 goals below their xG after 11 matches.

Goals
9
xG
10.55
Gap
-1.55
Sat 15/08 Sat 22/08 Sat 29/08 Tue 01/09 Sat 05/09 Wed 09/09 Sat 12/09 Sat 19/09 Sat 10/10 Wed 14/10 Sat 17/10 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +0.00 +0.38 -0.32 +1.13 +1.02 -0.25 -0.36 -1.11 -0.71 -0.56 -1.55 +0.00 +0.38 -0.70 +1.45 -0.11 -1.27 -0.11 -0.75 +0.40 +0.15 -0.99 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Derby County: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 15/08 Charlton Athletic 1 1.00 +0.00 +0.00
Sat 22/08 Cardiff City 2 1.62 +0.38 +0.38
Sat 29/08 Swansea City 0 0.70 -0.70 -0.32
Tue 01/09 Portsmouth 2 0.55 +1.45 +1.13
Sat 05/09 West Ham United 0 0.11 -0.11 +1.02
Wed 09/09 West Bromwich Albion 0 1.27 -1.27 -0.25
Sat 12/09 Birmingham City 1 1.11 -0.11 -0.36
Sat 19/09 Burnley 1 1.75 -0.75 -1.11
Sat 10/10 Wrexham 1 0.60 +0.40 -0.71
Wed 14/10 Queens Park Rangers 1 0.85 +0.15 -0.56
Sat 17/10 Stoke City 0 0.99 -0.99 -1.55

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

Derby County xG trend

Current form -0.13 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 4 of 11 matches. The worst was against West Ham United on Sat 05/09 (-3.36).

npxG · last 6
0.97
npxGA · last 6
1.10
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.06 Sat 15/08 -0.51 Sat 22/08 -2.85 Sat 29/08 -0.29 Tue 01/09 -3.36 Sat 05/09 +0.81 Wed 09/09 -2.10 Sat 12/09 +0.74 Sat 19/09 -0.78 Sat 10/10 +0.12 Wed 14/10 +0.45 Sat 17/10 -0.71 season avg
Derby County: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 15/08 Charlton Athletic 1.01 1.07 -0.06 -0.06
Sat 22/08 Cardiff City 1.62 2.13 -0.51 -0.29
Sat 29/08 Swansea City 0.59 3.44 -2.85 -1.14
Tue 01/09 Portsmouth 0.55 0.84 -0.29 -0.93
Sat 05/09 West Ham United 0.11 3.47 -3.36 -1.41
Wed 09/09 West Bromwich Albion 1.20 0.39 +0.81 -1.04
Sat 12/09 Birmingham City 1.02 3.12 -2.10 -1.19
Sat 19/09 Burnley 1.23 0.49 +0.74 -0.95
Sat 10/10 Wrexham 0.52 1.30 -0.78 -0.93
Wed 14/10 Queens Park Rangers 0.85 0.73 +0.12 -0.83
Sat 17/10 Stoke City 1.00 0.55 +0.45 -0.71

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.88 npxG and 1.59 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 10 hardest of 24 in Championship
+0.02 xG vs league average
Over 11 league matches
Last 5
number 17 hardest of 24 in Championship
−0.03 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.02 xG vs league average · over 11 matches · tied number 10 hardest of 24

  1. Stoke City Home −0.44
  2. Queens Park Rangers Away +0.20
  3. Wrexham Home −0.05
  4. Burnley Away −0.08
  5. Birmingham City Home +0.22
  6. West Bromwich Albion Home −0.01
  7. West Ham United Away +0.50
  8. Portsmouth Away +0.11
  9. Swansea City Home +0.14
  10. Cardiff City Home +0.04
  11. Charlton Athletic Away −0.40

Last 5

−0.03 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 17 hardest of 24

  1. Stoke City Home −0.44
  2. Queens Park Rangers Away +0.20
  3. Wrexham Home −0.05
  4. Burnley Away −0.08
  5. Birmingham City Home +0.22

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Derby County shots and chance quality

Average volume, low quality. Derby County take 12.7 shots a match (league 13.5) at 0.07 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #15 in Championship for volume and #23 for quality. 68% of their shots come from inside the box (league 67%), and set pieces produce 27% of their npxG (league 28%).

Attack

Shot volume
12.7 shots per match
#15/24
Shot volume (shots per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Middlesbrough 19.1
#2 Cardiff City 17.2
#3 West Ham United 16.3
#4 Wolverhampton 16.2
#5 Portsmouth 15.3
#6 Southampton 15.2
#7 Queens Park Rangers 15.1
=8 Burnley 14.3
=8 Millwall 14.3
#10 Bristol City 14.0
#11 Norwich City 13.9
#12 Bolton Wanderers 13.8
#13 Birmingham City 13.7
#14 Watford 13.0
#15 Derby County 12.7
=16 Preston North End 12.1
=16 Swansea City 12.1
=18 Lincoln City 11.5
=18 West Bromwich Albion 11.5
=20 Stoke City 11.4
=20 Wrexham 11.4
#22 Blackburn Rovers 11.2
#23 Charlton Athletic 10.2
#24 Sheffield United 9.4
League avg
13.5
Total
140 shots from 11 matches
Chance quality
0.07 npxG per shot
#23/24
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Championship, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Swansea City 0.13
#2 Millwall 0.12
#3 Birmingham City 0.12
#4 West Ham United 0.12
#5 Southampton 0.11
#6 Sheffield United 0.11
#7 Middlesbrough 0.10
#8 Charlton Athletic 0.10
#9 Cardiff City 0.10
#10 Wrexham 0.10
#11 Wolverhampton 0.10
#12 West Bromwich Albion 0.10
#13 Preston North End 0.09
#14 Queens Park Rangers 0.09
#15 Lincoln City 0.09
#16 Norwich City 0.09
#17 Bristol City 0.09
#18 Bolton Wanderers 0.09
#19 Watford 0.08
#20 Blackburn Rovers 0.08
#21 Portsmouth 0.08
#22 Burnley 0.08
#23 Derby County 0.07
#24 Stoke City 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
9.70 npxG from 140 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
14.2 shots per match
#15/24
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Swansea City 10.8
#2 Wolverhampton 10.9
=3 Middlesbrough 11.0
=3 Portsmouth 11.0
=5 West Bromwich Albion 11.5
=5 West Ham United 11.5
#7 Wrexham 11.6
=8 Birmingham City 11.7
=8 Queens Park Rangers 11.7
#10 Bristol City 12.0
#11 Norwich City 12.5
#12 Bolton Wanderers 12.8
#13 Millwall 13.5
#14 Burnley 14.1
#15 Derby County 14.2
#16 Southampton 14.7
#17 Cardiff City 15.1
#18 Preston North End 15.8
=19 Sheffield United 15.9
=19 Watford 15.9
#21 Stoke City 16.2
#22 Lincoln City 16.4
#23 Blackburn Rovers 16.8
#24 Charlton Athletic 17.1
League avg
13.5
Total
156 shots allowed from 11 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#21/24
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Championship, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Southampton 0.08
#2 Charlton Athletic 0.08
#3 Lincoln City 0.08
#4 Blackburn Rovers 0.08
#5 Wolverhampton 0.08
#6 Sheffield United 0.09
#7 West Ham United 0.09
#8 Preston North End 0.09
#9 Millwall 0.09
#10 Middlesbrough 0.09
#11 Stoke City 0.09
#12 Swansea City 0.09
#13 Wrexham 0.09
#14 Cardiff City 0.10
#15 Bristol City 0.10
#16 Portsmouth 0.10
#17 Queens Park Rangers 0.10
#18 Birmingham City 0.10
#19 Burnley 0.10
#20 Watford 0.11
#21 Derby County 0.11
#22 West Bromwich Albion 0.12
#23 Norwich City 0.13
#24 Bolton Wanderers 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
17.53 npxGA from 156 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

68% inside the box

League avg 67%

From 95 of 140 shots over 11 matches

Shots allowed, location

65% allowed inside the box

League avg 67%

From 102 of 156 shots allowed over 11 matches

Where the npxG comes from

73% open play · 27% set pieces

League avg 28% set pieces

From 2.6 of 9.7 npxG over 11 matches

Where the npxG allowed comes from

72% open play · 28% set pieces

League avg 28% set pieces

From 4.9 of 17.5 npxG allowed over 11 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Derby County home and away xG

Derby County per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 6 5
xG / match 1.05 0.85
xGA / match 1.76 1.51
xGD / match -0.71 -0.66
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.02 1.13

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Derby County match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
11
xG / match
0.96
xGA / match
1.65
xGD / match
-0.69
Points
6 of 33
  1. Sat 17/10 Stoke City H xG 0.99 xGA 0.56 xGD +0.43
  2. Wed 14/10 Queens Park Rangers A xG 0.85 xGA 1.52 P xGD -0.67
  3. Sat 10/10 Wrexham H xG 0.60 xGA 1.46 xGD -0.86
  4. Sat 19/09 Burnley A Best underlying xG 1.75 P xGA 0.45 xGD +1.30
  5. Sat 12/09 Birmingham City H xG 1.11 xGA 3.17 xGD -2.06
  6. Wed 09/09 West Bromwich Albion H xG 1.27 xGA 0.38 xGD +0.89
  7. Sat 05/09 West Ham United A Weakest underlying xG 0.11 xGA 3.79 xGD -3.68
  8. Tue 01/09 Portsmouth A xG 0.55 xGA 0.84 xGD -0.29
  9. Sat 29/08 Swansea City H xG 0.70 xGA 3.00 xGD -2.30
  10. Sat 22/08 Cardiff City H xG 1.62 xGA 1.98 xGD -0.36
  11. Sat 15/08 Charlton Athletic A xG 1.00 xGA 0.97 xGD +0.03

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.79. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Derby County in Championship

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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