Championship odds and edges 2026/2027
Estimates from a statistical model, published for reading rather than as betting advice. A positive edge is a statement about an average over a long run, not about the match in front of you.
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The qualified edges on the next Championship matches: the outcomes where the model's probability, at the top price in the odds feed, clears the threshold under the same rule as the betting board. Every figure is defined above and computed from two inputs: the model probability and the top price.
What each figure is
- Model probability p
- The model's pre-kickoff probability for the selection, e.g. 13.2%.
- Fair odds 1 ÷ p
- The odds at which a bet on the model probability breaks even, e.g. 7.58.
- Top price price
- The highest decimal odds across the bookmakers in the feed at the last capture, e.g. 11.00.
- Implied probability 1 ÷ price
- What the top price says the chance is, the bookmaker's margin included, e.g. 9.1%.
- Edge p × price − 1
- The expected return per unit staked at the top price if the model probability is right, e.g. +45.2%.
- Probability gap p − 1 ÷ price
- The model probability less the implied probability, in percentage points, e.g. +4.1 pp.
| Selection | Model prob. | Fair odds | Top price | Bookmaker | Price age | Edge | Prob. gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough at most 1 goal | Model prob. 47.2% | Fair odds 2.12 | Top price 2.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Price age | Edge +17.9% | Prob. gap +7.2 pp |
| Bolton Wanderers to win | Model prob. 22.9% | Fair odds 4.38 | Top price 4.75 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Price age | Edge +8.5% | Prob. gap +1.8 pp |
| Selection | Model prob. | Fair odds | Top price | Bookmaker | Price age | Edge | Prob. gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County to win | Model prob. 31.1% | Fair odds 3.21 | Top price 4.10 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Price age | Edge +27.6% | Prob. gap +6.7 pp |
| Sheffield United not to score | Model prob. 24.3% | Fair odds 4.12 | Top price 5.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Price age | Edge +21.4% | Prob. gap +4.3 pp |
| Derby County 2+ goals | Model prob. 33.8% | Fair odds 2.96 | Top price 3.25 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Price age | Edge +9.9% | Prob. gap +3.0 pp |
| Selection | Model prob. | Fair odds | Top price | Bookmaker | Price age | Edge | Prob. gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford to win | Model prob. 13.3% | Fair odds 7.54 | Top price 8.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Price age | Edge +6.1% | Prob. gap +0.8 pp |
| Selection | Model prob. | Fair odds | Top price | Bookmaker | Price age | Edge | Prob. gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham United at most 1 goal | Model prob. 44.4% | Fair odds 2.25 | Top price 2.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Price age | Edge +11.0% | Prob. gap +4.4 pp |
| Selection | Model prob. | Fair odds | Top price | Bookmaker | Price age | Edge | Prob. gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City not to score | Model prob. 29.9% | Fair odds 3.34 | Top price 3.75 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Price age | Edge +12.3% | Prob. gap +3.3 pp |
| Bristol City to win | Model prob. 36.2% | Fair odds 2.76 | Top price 3.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Price age | Edge +8.7% | Prob. gap +2.9 pp |
| Selection | Model prob. | Fair odds | Top price | Bookmaker | Price age | Edge | Prob. gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston North End to win | Model prob. 33.5% | Fair odds 2.98 | Top price 3.75 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Price age | Edge +25.7% | Prob. gap +6.9 pp |
| Preston North End 2+ goals | Model prob. 36.1% | Fair odds 2.77 | Top price 3.25 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Price age | Edge +17.3% | Prob. gap +5.3 pp |
| West Bromwich Albion at most 1 goal | Model prob. 63.0% | Fair odds 1.59 | Top price 1.83 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Price age | Edge +15.5% | Prob. gap +8.4 pp |
| Selection | Model prob. | Fair odds | Top price | Bookmaker | Price age | Edge | Prob. gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln City to win | Model prob. 36.9% | Fair odds 2.71 | Top price 3.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Price age | Edge +10.8% | Prob. gap +3.6 pp |
Only matches still to kick off are listed, and only qualified edges: a price inside its refresh allowance (6 hours within a day of kickoff, 48 hours further out), on a match with full data, in a market where the backtest measured model skill, with an edge from 5% up to but not including 40%. How the model works →