Championship

Championship results 2026/2027

Every Championship match played this season, newest first, with the xG each side created and the home, draw and away probabilities the model held before kickoff.

xG reading

All Went with the xG Went against the xG

Model record

Most likely outcome landed in 12 of 25 matches (48%). The probabilities implied about 11 (46%). Brier score 0.65 (reference 0.67; lower is better). How the model works →

Home
Draw
Away

What happened Most likely outcome Upset

Tuesday, 20/10/2026

1 match

20:45

Wolverhampton 1

Portsmouth 1

xG 1.01 – 0.65 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

→

Saturday, 17/10/2026

11 matches

16:00

Wrexham 4

Preston North End 1

xG 1.86 – 0.72 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
16:00

West Bromwich Albion 3

Blackburn Rovers 2

xG 3.68 – 0.82 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
16:00

Swansea City 0

West Ham United 1

xG 1.04 – 1.19 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
16:00

Southampton 0

Bolton Wanderers 0

xG 1.87 – 1.22 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

→
16:00

Norwich City 0

Portsmouth 1

xG 0.29 – 1.19 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
16:00

Derby County 0

Stoke City 1

xG 0.99 – 0.56 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
16:00

Bristol City 0

Sheffield United 1

xG 0.50 – 1.18 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
16:00

Birmingham City 3

Queens Park Rangers 0

xG 1.30 – 1.15 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
13:30

Watford 2

Charlton Athletic 0

xG 2.78 – 1.25 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
13:30

Millwall 2

Lincoln City 2

xG 1.84 – 0.73 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

→
13:30

Middlesbrough 2

Cardiff City 2

xG 2.71 – 0.85 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

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Friday, 16/10/2026

1 match

21:00

Burnley 1

Wolverhampton 2

xG 1.00 – 1.82 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Wednesday, 14/10/2026

4 matches

21:00

Lincoln City 0

West Ham United 6

xG 0.35 – 3.20 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
20:45

Queens Park Rangers 4

Derby County 1

xG 1.52 – 0.85 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
20:45

Portsmouth 3

Sheffield United 2

xG 2.22 – 2.01 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
20:45

Norwich City 0

Southampton 1

xG 1.07 – 2.34 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→

Tuesday, 13/10/2026

8 matches

21:00

Stoke City 2

Middlesbrough 3

xG 0.65 – 2.57 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
21:00

Birmingham City 4

Preston North End 0

xG 2.24 – 0.49 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
20:45

Wrexham 1

West Bromwich Albion 2

xG 0.38 – 0.94 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
20:45

Wolverhampton 1

Bolton Wanderers 3

xG 2.23 – 1.62 Lower-xG side won

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
20:45

Millwall 0

Swansea City 1

xG 1.05 – 1.83 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
20:45

Cardiff City 5

Watford 1

xG 3.67 – 1.46 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
20:45

Burnley 2

Charlton Athletic 2

xG 1.08 – 2.13 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

→
20:45

Bristol City 0

Blackburn Rovers 1

xG 1.89 – 0.15 Lower-xG side won

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→

Sunday, 11/10/2026

1 match

13:00

Southampton 1

Portsmouth 0

xG 1.28 – 1.18 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Saturday, 10/10/2026

10 matches

16:00

Derby County 1

Wrexham 1

xG 0.60 – 1.46 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Bolton Wanderers 1

Stoke City 2

xG 3.13 – 0.74 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Blackburn Rovers 2

Cardiff City 1

xG 2.42 – 1.05 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Watford 0

Burnley 4

xG 0.64 – 1.94 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Sheffield United 3

Lincoln City 0

xG 0.68 – 1.39 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Preston North End 0

Millwall 1

xG 0.65 – 1.09 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Middlesbrough 1

Wolverhampton 0

xG 0.90 – 0.68 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
13:30

Charlton Athletic 1

Bristol City 1

xG 1.78 – 1.47 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
13:30

West Bromwich Albion 0

Birmingham City 1

xG 1.05 – 2.55 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
13:30

Swansea City 2

Norwich City 1

xG 2.36 – 0.68 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Friday, 09/10/2026

1 match

21:00

West Ham United 1

Queens Park Rangers 1

xG 1.44 – 1.27 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Sunday, 20/09/2026

2 matches

14:30

Norwich City 3

Bolton Wanderers 4

xG 0.69 – 1.10 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
13:00

Wolverhampton 1

West Bromwich Albion 0

xG 1.95 – 0.29 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Saturday, 19/09/2026

9 matches

16:00

Wrexham 2

Southampton 1

xG 0.54 – 2.08 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Queens Park Rangers 2

Preston North End 2

xG 2.54 – 1.50 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Portsmouth 2

Blackburn Rovers 2

xG 1.60 – 0.59 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Lincoln City 1

Swansea City 2

xG 2.11 – 0.92 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Burnley 1

Derby County 1

xG 0.45 – 1.75 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Birmingham City 2

Middlesbrough 2

xG 1.23 – 2.14 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
→
13:30

Stoke City 2

Sheffield United 1

xG 0.54 – 0.48 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
13:30

Millwall 2

West Ham United 2

xG 2.68 – 1.87 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
→
13:30

Cardiff City 3

Charlton Athletic 1

xG 2.60 – 1.26 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Friday, 18/09/2026

1 match

21:00

Bristol City 1

Watford 0

xG 1.47 – 0.57 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Tuesday, 15/09/2026

1 match

20:45

Middlesbrough 2

Millwall 2

xG 1.52 – 1.69 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

xG is a model estimate of the chances each side created. "Went with the xG" means the side with more xG won; "Went against the xG" means the side with less xG won or the match was drawn across a gap of at least 0.5. The probabilities are the ones the model published before kickoff, rounded so the three add to 100; the outline marks what happened.