Championship odds: history of flagged selections 2026/2027
Estimates from a statistical model, published for reading rather than as betting advice. A positive edge is a statement about an average over a long run, not about the match in front of you.
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Every Championship qualified selection this season — a fresh price, full model data, a market with measured skill and an edge from 5% up to but not including 40%, at the model's last evaluation before kickoff — newest first, with its result and what an equal stake of one unit returned.
The price shown is the one paired with the last evaluation before kickoff, not necessarily the price available when the selection first appeared. Selections that no longer qualified at that evaluation are not counted.
| Match and selection | Model prob. | Price | Bookmaker | Captured | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton – Portsmouth Portsmouth to win | Model prob. 22.0% | Price 5.75 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Wolverhampton – Portsmouth Wolverhampton not to score | Model prob. 20.9% | Price 6.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Birmingham City – Queens Park Rangers Queens Park Rangers to win | Model prob. 28.2% | Price 3.75 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Birmingham City – Queens Park Rangers Birmingham City at most 1 goal | Model prob. 58.4% | Price 1.83 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Wrexham – Preston North End Wrexham not to score | Model prob. 23.3% | Price 5.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Wrexham – Preston North End Preston North End 2+ goals | Model prob. 27.7% | Price 5.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Norwich City – Portsmouth Portsmouth to win | Model prob. 31.2% | Price 4.10 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +3.10u |
| Norwich City – Portsmouth Norwich City not to score | Model prob. 24.9% | Price 5.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +4.00u |
| Derby County – Stoke City Derby County to win | Model prob. 45.1% | Price 2.90 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Derby County – Stoke City Derby County 2+ goals | Model prob. 44.2% | Price 2.63 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Derby County – Stoke City Stoke City at most 1 goal | Model prob. 71.7% | Price 1.57 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.57u |
| Southampton – Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 2+ goals | Model prob. 34.0% | Price 3.40 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Swansea City – West Ham United West Ham United at most 1 goal | Model prob. 58.7% | Price 1.80 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.80u |
| West Bromwich Albion – Blackburn Rovers West Bromwich Albion at most 1 goal | Model prob. 65.0% | Price 1.73 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Millwall – Lincoln City Lincoln City 2+ goals | Model prob. 29.6% | Price 3.75 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +2.75u |
| Middlesbrough – Cardiff City Cardiff City to win | Model prob. 18.7% | Price 6.25 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Middlesbrough – Cardiff City Middlesbrough at most 1 goal | Model prob. 36.4% | Price 3.40 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Portsmouth – Sheffield United Portsmouth to win | Model prob. 50.3% | Price 2.30 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.30u |
| Portsmouth – Sheffield United Sheffield United not to score | Model prob. 40.7% | Price 3.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Norwich City – Southampton Southampton at most 1 goal | Model prob. 63.0% | Price 1.67 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.67u |
| Stoke City – Middlesbrough Middlesbrough to win | Model prob. 57.4% | Price 1.95 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.95u |
| Stoke City – Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2+ goals | Model prob. 57.4% | Price 1.83 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.83u |
| Birmingham City – Preston North End Preston North End to win | Model prob. 21.5% | Price 6.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Birmingham City – Preston North End Birmingham City at most 1 goal | Model prob. 46.8% | Price 2.38 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Birmingham City – Preston North End Preston North End 2+ goals | Model prob. 30.7% | Price 4.33 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Wrexham – West Bromwich Albion Wrexham at most 1 goal | Model prob. 67.6% | Price 1.57 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.57u |
| Millwall – Swansea City Millwall to win | Model prob. 45.2% | Price 2.38 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Millwall – Swansea City Millwall 2+ goals | Model prob. 46.9% | Price 2.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
A selection counts only if the live feed evaluated and priced it before kickoff and it qualified at that evaluation. Nothing is added afterwards. A pending selection is graded by the nightly settlement. How the model works →