Tuesday, 13/10/2026 at 20:45
Full timeWrexham 1:2 West Bromwich Albion
Wrexham were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. West Bromwich Albion won 2–1. The biggest difference was Wrexham's attack: 0.38 xG against 1.15 projected (−0.77).
Goals
- 64' Kieffer Moore Wrexham · 0.03 xG chance 1–0
- 79' Isaac Price West Bromwich Albion · 0.16 xG chance 1–1
- 84' Aune Selland Heggebø West Bromwich Albion · 0.51 xG chance 1–2
The model against the result
- Wrexham
- 39%
- Draw
- 35%
- West Bromwich Albion
- 26% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Wrexham produced 0.77 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 8
- 9
- On target
- 3
- 3
- Inside the box
- 6
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.05
- 0.11
- Open play xG
- 0.23
- 0.88
- Set-piece xG
- 0.15
- 0.07
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.95 for West Bromwich Albion.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
17 shots · 1.33 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Wrexham
- West Bromwich Albion
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.89 xG created 1.35 xGA
0.77 xG created 1.34 xGA
- D 0.57 created, 0.39 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- W 1.14 created, 1.26 conceded against Watford
- W 0.38 created, 1.27 conceded against Derby County
- D 1.22 created, 0.62 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- L 0.29 created, 1.95 conceded against Wolverhampton
- L 1.05 created, 2.55 conceded against Birmingham City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged1 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.73 | +13.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.20 | +10.9% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.20 | +10.2% | Lost |
| Wrexham at most 1 goal | 1.57 | +6.2% | Won |
| West Bromwich Albion at most 1 goal | 1.36 | +4.9% | Lost |
| West Bromwich Albion not to score | 2.75 | +1.5% | Lost |
| Wrexham not to score | 3.50 | +0.8% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham | 39.0% | 42.5% | −3.4 pp | 2.56 |
| Draw | 34.7% | 29.2% | +5.5 pp | 2.88 |
| West Bromwich Albion | 26.3% | 28.3% | −2.0 pp | 3.80 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham to score | 71.2% | 73.1% | −1.9 pp | 1.40 |
| Wrexham not to score | 28.8% | 26.9% | +1.9 pp | 3.47 |
| West Bromwich Albion to score | 63.1% | 66.3% | −3.2 pp | 1.58 |
| West Bromwich Albion not to score | 36.9% | 33.7% | +3.2 pp | 2.71 |
| Both teams to score | 46.9% | 50.0% | −3.1 pp | 2.13 |
| Both teams not to score | 53.1% | 50.0% | +3.1 pp | 1.88 |
| Wrexham 2+ goals | 32.4% | 41.1% | −8.7 pp | 3.08 |
| Wrexham at most 1 goal | 67.6% | 58.9% | +8.7 pp | 1.48 |
| West Bromwich Albion 2+ goals | 23.1% | 31.3% | −8.2 pp | 4.33 |
| West Bromwich Albion at most 1 goal | 76.9% | 68.7% | +8.2 pp | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.6% | 70.1% | −4.6 pp | 1.53 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 29.9% | +4.6 pp | 2.90 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.4% | 45.1% | −10.8 pp | 2.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 65.6% | 54.9% | +10.8 pp | 1.52 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Wrexham sample
- 20 matches
- West Bromwich Albion sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.