AEK Larnaca 0:1 Pafos FC: xG & match report · Cypriot First Division

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Cypriot First Division

AEK Larnaca Home 1.35 xG

Pafos FC Away 2.37 xG

01 The scoreline reflected the chances

Pafos FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Pafos FC's attack: 2.37 xG against 1.20 projected (+1.17).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AEK Larnaca: 32%
Draw: 33%
Pafos FC: 35% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AEK Larnaca 1.15 1.35 +0.20

Pafos FC 1.20 2.37 +1.17

Pafos FC produced 1.17 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AEK Larnaca Pafos FC

Shots: 13; 19
On target: 2; 6
Inside the box: 7; 9
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.12

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AEK Larnaca

1.25 xG created 1.50 xGA

L 0.81 created, 0.65 conceded against APOEL Nicosia
W 1.13 created, 1.38 conceded against Apollon Limassol
D 0.84 created, 2.60 conceded against Omonia Nicosia
D 1.56 created, 1.90 conceded against Pafos FC
W 0.44 created, 1.51 conceded against APOEL Nicosia
W 2.70 created, 0.94 conceded against Nea Salamina Famagusta

Pafos FC

1.70 xG created 1.46 xGA

L 0.93 created, 0.89 conceded against Apollon Limassol
L 1.91 created, 2.05 conceded against Omonia Nicosia
W 1.34 created, 0.85 conceded against Aris Limassol
D 1.90 created, 1.56 conceded against AEK Larnaca
W 2.78 created, 2.20 conceded against Karmiotissa Polemidion
D 1.36 created, 1.21 conceded against Olympiakos Nicosia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

AEK Larnaca: 1 won · 2 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AEK Larnaca against Pafos FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	1.85	+6.4%	Won
Draw	3.20	+4.8%	Lost
AEK Larnaca at most 1 goal	1.53	+3.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AEK Larnaca	32.2%	36.6%	−4.4 pp	3.11
Draw	32.8%	28.6%	+4.2 pp	3.05
Pafos FC	35.1%	34.8%	+0.2 pp	2.85

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AEK Larnaca to score	71.0%	72.3%	−1.3 pp	1.41
AEK Larnaca not to score	29.0%	27.7%	+1.3 pp	3.45
Pafos FC to score	72.8%	70.9%	+1.9 pp	1.37
Pafos FC not to score	27.2%	29.1%	−1.9 pp	3.68
Both teams to score	53.7%	51.5%	+2.2 pp	1.86
Both teams not to score	46.3%	48.5%	−2.2 pp	2.16
AEK Larnaca 2+ goals	32.2%	39.2%	−7.0 pp	3.10
AEK Larnaca at most 1 goal	67.8%	60.8%	+7.0 pp	1.48
Pafos FC 2+ goals	34.4%	37.5%	−3.1 pp	2.91
Pafos FC at most 1 goal	65.6%	62.5%	+3.1 pp	1.52
Over 1.5 goals	72.4%	73.1%	−0.7 pp	1.38
Under 1.5 goals	27.6%	26.9%	+0.7 pp	3.62
Over 2.5 goals	42.5%	48.7%	−6.2 pp	2.36
Under 2.5 goals	57.5%	51.3%	+6.2 pp	1.74

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AEK Larnaca sample: 20 matches
Pafos FC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.