Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 18:00
20d 12h to kick-offAnorthosis Famagusta – Omonia Aradippou
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Anorthosis Famagusta
- 34%
- Draw
- 31%
- Omonia Aradippou
- 34%
| Anorthosis Famagusta | Draw | Omonia Aradippou | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.93 | 3.18 | 2.90 |
- Total goals
- 2.55
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
34% Omonia Aradippou to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 10th
- Omonia Aradippou attack v Anorthosis Famagusta defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 14th
- Omonia Aradippou defence v Anorthosis Famagusta attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.19 vs -0.54
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.27 – 1.28
- Anorthosis Famagusta v Omonia Aradippou
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Anorthosis Famagusta | Omonia Aradippou |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.14 · 14th from 4 matches | (better) 1.61 · 6th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.55 · 8th from 4 matches | 1.96 · 11th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.41 · 11th from 4 matches | (better) -0.36 · 10th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.09 · 10th from 4 matches | (better) 1.16 · 9th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.54 | (better) -0.19 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Omonia Aradippou clean sheet
- 25%
- Omonia Aradippou 2+ goals
- 37%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.1%
- 1:2
- 9.4%
- 2:1
- 9.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Anorthosis Famagusta sample
- 20 matches
- Omonia Aradippou sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Anorthosis Famagusta
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · Omonia Aradippou
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.