Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 16:00
21d 4h to kick-offKarmiotissa Polemidion – Apollon Limassol
Model updated 4 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Karmiotissa Polemidion
- 21%
- Draw
- 29%
- Apollon Limassol
- 50%
| Karmiotissa Polemidion | Draw | Apollon Limassol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.83 | 3.44 | 1.99 |
- Total goals
- 2.61
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Apollon Limassol
50% Apollon Limassol to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 14th
- Apollon Limassol attack v Karmiotissa Polemidion defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 11th
- Apollon Limassol defence v Karmiotissa Polemidion attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.21 vs -1.13
- xGD per match, last 4
- Projected goals
- 1.00 – 1.60
- Karmiotissa Polemidion v Apollon Limassol
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 4 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Karmiotissa Polemidion | Apollon Limassol |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.31 · 12th from 4 matches | 1.18 · 13th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 2.43 · 14th from 4 matches | (better) 1.52 · joint 6th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -1.13 · 14th from 4 matches | (better) -0.34 · 9th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.65 · 14th from 4 matches | (better) 1.04 · 11th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.13 from 4 matches | (better) -0.21 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Apollon Limassol clean sheet
- 34%
- Apollon Limassol 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 44%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.9%
- 1:2
- 11.2%
- 0:2
- 9.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Karmiotissa Polemidion sample
- 4 matches
- Apollon Limassol sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Karmiotissa Polemidion
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Apollon Limassol
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 12:30
Warnings
- Karmiotissa Polemidion has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.