Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 13:00
Full timeBaník Ostrava 1:2 FK Pardubice
Baník Ostrava were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. FK Pardubice won 2–1. The biggest difference was FK Pardubice's attack: 2.33 xG against 1.17 projected (+1.16).
Goals
- 20' Václav Drchal FK Pardubice · 0.38 xG chance 0–1
- 54' Abdoull Tanko FK Pardubice · 0.16 xG chance 0–2
- 81' Vit Skrkon Baník Ostrava · 0.06 xG chance 1–2
The model against the result
- Baník Ostrava
- 39%
- Draw
- 31%
- FK Pardubice
- 29% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Pardubice produced 1.16 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 16
- On target
- 4
- 5
- Inside the box
- 10
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.14
- Open play xG
- 0.71
- 1.85
- Set-piece xG
- 0.21
- 0.40
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.93 for Baník Ostrava and 2.33 for FK Pardubice.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 3.17 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Baník Ostrava
- FK Pardubice
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.21 xG created 2.02 xGA
- L 0.70 created, 2.19 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
- L 0.80 created, 2.39 conceded against FC Hradec Králové
- W 2.23 created, 0.91 conceded against SK Líšeň
- W 0.24 created, 0.63 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
- L 2.44 created, 3.10 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
- L 0.85 created, 2.87 conceded against FK Jablonec
1.41 xG created 1.23 xGA
- L 2.75 created, 0.61 conceded against FK Jablonec
- L 0.66 created, 2.86 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
- D 1.37 created, 0.75 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
- L 1.15 created, 1.48 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
- L 1.81 created, 0.80 conceded against SK Líšeň
- D 0.70 created, 0.89 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged2 won3 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baník Ostrava at most 1 goal | 1.83 | +8.8% | Won |
| Draw | 3.40 | +6.3% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | +4.7% | Lost |
| FK Pardubice to win | 3.50 | +2.9% | Won |
| Baník Ostrava not to score | 4.50 | +2.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baník Ostrava | 39.3% | 47.5% | −8.1 pp | 2.54 |
| Draw | 31.3% | 26.6% | +4.6 pp | 3.20 |
| FK Pardubice | 29.4% | 25.9% | +3.5 pp | 3.40 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baník Ostrava to score | 77.3% | 79.2% | −1.9 pp | 1.29 |
| Baník Ostrava not to score | 22.7% | 20.8% | +1.9 pp | 4.40 |
| FK Pardubice to score | 71.8% | 68.7% | +3.0 pp | 1.39 |
| FK Pardubice not to score | 28.2% | 31.3% | −3.0 pp | 3.54 |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | 55.7% | +1.6 pp | 1.75 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.7% | 44.3% | −1.6 pp | 2.34 |
| Baník Ostrava 2+ goals | 40.7% | 50.0% | −9.3 pp | 2.46 |
| Baník Ostrava at most 1 goal | 59.3% | 50.0% | +9.3 pp | 1.69 |
| FK Pardubice 2+ goals | 33.1% | 33.7% | −0.6 pp | 3.02 |
| FK Pardubice at most 1 goal | 66.9% | 66.3% | +0.6 pp | 1.49 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.3% | 75.0% | +1.3 pp | 1.31 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.7% | 25.0% | −1.3 pp | 4.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.6% | 52.6% | −5.0 pp | 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.4% | 47.4% | +5.0 pp | 1.91 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Baník Ostrava sample
- 20 matches
- FK Pardubice sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.