Wednesday, 09/09/2026 at 19:00
Full timeFC Hradec Králové 0:0 Viktoria Plzeň
Viktoria Plzeň were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Viktoria Plzeň's attack: 0.21 xG against 1.35 projected (−1.14).
The model against the result
- FC Hradec Králové
- 29%
- Draw
- 32% What happened
- Viktoria Plzeň
- 40%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Viktoria Plzeň produced 1.14 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 7
- On target
- 3
- 2
- Inside the box
- 11
- 2
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.03
- Open play xG
- 0.67
- 0.22
- Set-piece xG
- 0.27
- 0.00
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.92 for FC Hradec Králové and 0.21 for Viktoria Plzeň.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
23 shots · 1.16 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Hradec Králové
- Viktoria Plzeň
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.06 xG created 1.11 xGA
- W 1.11 created, 0.31 conceded against FK Pardubice
- D 0.83 created, 0.68 conceded against Bohemians Praha 1905
- W 2.39 created, 0.80 conceded against Baník Ostrava
- L 0.36 created, 2.19 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
- L 0.53 created, 1.48 conceded against FC Zbrojovka Brno
- W 1.14 created, 1.18 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
1.59 xG created 1.09 xGA
- L 1.07 created, 2.50 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
- D 0.80 created, 0.65 conceded against FC Zbrojovka Brno
- D 2.49 created, 1.47 conceded against FK Teplice
- W 2.22 created, 1.06 conceded against FC Zlín
- D 1.28 created, 0.41 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
- W 1.70 created, 0.44 conceded against SK Líšeň
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged3 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.05 | +10.3% | Won |
| Draw | 3.40 | +7.3% | Won |
| Viktoria Plzeň at most 1 goal | 1.73 | +3.8% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Hradec Králové | 28.9% | 29.5% | −0.6 pp | 3.46 |
| Draw | 31.5% | 26.9% | +4.6 pp | 3.17 |
| Viktoria Plzeň | 39.6% | 43.6% | −4.0 pp | 2.53 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Hradec Králové to score | 70.7% | 68.7% | +1.9 pp | 1.41 |
| FC Hradec Králové not to score | 29.3% | 31.3% | −1.9 pp | 3.41 |
| Viktoria Plzeň to score | 76.7% | 76.6% | +0.1 pp | 1.30 |
| Viktoria Plzeň not to score | 23.3% | 23.4% | −0.1 pp | 4.30 |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 54.7% | +1.4 pp | 1.78 |
| Both teams not to score | 43.9% | 45.3% | −1.4 pp | 2.28 |
| FC Hradec Králové 2+ goals | 31.8% | 35.5% | −3.7 pp | 3.14 |
| FC Hradec Králové at most 1 goal | 68.2% | 64.5% | +3.7 pp | 1.47 |
| Viktoria Plzeň 2+ goals | 39.9% | 46.3% | −6.4 pp | 2.51 |
| Viktoria Plzeň at most 1 goal | 60.1% | 53.7% | +6.4 pp | 1.66 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.2% | 76.6% | −1.4 pp | 1.33 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.8% | 23.4% | +1.4 pp | 4.03 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 53.9% | −7.8 pp | 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 46.1% | +7.8 pp | 1.86 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Hradec Králové sample
- 20 matches
- Viktoria Plzeň sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.