Mladá Boleslav 2:0 FC Zbrojovka Brno: xG & match report · Czech First League

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 15:00

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Match report · Czech First League

Mladá Boleslav Home 1.03 xG · 10 shots

FC Zbrojovka Brno Away 2.49 xG · 21 shots

20 The result went against the chances

Mladá Boleslav were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was FC Zbrojovka Brno's attack: 2.49 xG against 1.25 projected (+1.24). Mladá Boleslav produced 1.03 xG against 1.60 projected (−0.57).

Goals

7' Martin Šubert Mladá Boleslav · 0.04 xG chance 1–0
50' Jiří Klíma Mladá Boleslav · 0.28 xG chance 2–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Mladá Boleslav: 44% What happened
Draw: 29%
FC Zbrojovka Brno: 27%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 8 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Mladá Boleslav 1.60 1.03 -0.57

FC Zbrojovka Brno 1.25 2.49 +1.24

FC Zbrojovka Brno produced 1.24 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Mladá Boleslav FC Zbrojovka Brno

Shots: 10; 21
On target: 5; 6
Inside the box: 6; 15
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.12
Open play xG: 0.94; 1.64
Set-piece xG: 0.10; 0.08
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.03 for Mladá Boleslav and 1.72 for FC Zbrojovka Brno.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 3.58 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Mladá Boleslav
FC Zbrojovka Brno
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Mladá Boleslav

1.39 xG created 2.07 xGA

D 1.17 created, 2.48 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
W 1.49 created, 0.77 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
D 0.75 created, 1.37 conceded against FK Pardubice
W 1.16 created, 2.18 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
W 3.10 created, 2.44 conceded against Baník Ostrava
L 0.69 created, 3.19 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec

FC Zbrojovka Brno

0.97 xG created 1.73 xGA

L 0.52 created, 2.75 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
W 0.69 created, 0.82 conceded against FK Teplice
W 1.02 created, 0.90 conceded against FC Zlín
W 1.48 created, 0.53 conceded against FC Hradec Králové
L 0.79 created, 4.33 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
W 1.29 created, 1.04 conceded against SK Líšeň

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost

Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Mladá Boleslav against FC Zbrojovka Brno before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.62	+1.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Mladá Boleslav	44.0%	41.7%	+2.4 pp	2.27
Draw	28.9%	27.8%	+1.1 pp	3.46
FC Zbrojovka Brno	27.1%	30.6%	−3.5 pp	3.69

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Mladá Boleslav to score	82.3%	78.3%	+4.0 pp	1.22
Mladá Boleslav not to score	17.7%	21.7%	−4.0 pp	5.65
FC Zbrojovka Brno to score	74.2%	72.3%	+1.9 pp	1.35
FC Zbrojovka Brno not to score	25.8%	27.7%	−1.9 pp	3.88
Both teams to score	62.7%	57.7%	+5.0 pp	1.59
Both teams not to score	37.3%	42.3%	−5.0 pp	2.68
Mladá Boleslav 2+ goals	49.1%	46.3%	+2.8 pp	2.04
Mladá Boleslav at most 1 goal	50.9%	53.7%	−2.8 pp	1.96
FC Zbrojovka Brno 2+ goals	36.1%	37.5%	−1.4 pp	2.77
FC Zbrojovka Brno at most 1 goal	63.9%	62.5%	+1.4 pp	1.57
Over 1.5 goals	81.8%	76.6%	+5.2 pp	1.22
Under 1.5 goals	18.2%	23.4%	−5.2 pp	5.48
Over 2.5 goals	55.8%	54.6%	+1.2 pp	1.79
Under 2.5 goals	44.2%	45.4%	−1.2 pp	2.26

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Mladá Boleslav sample: 20 matches
FC Zbrojovka Brno sample: 8 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FC Zbrojovka Brno has only 8 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.