Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00
20d 13h to kick-offMKS Korona Kielce – GKS Katowice
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- MKS Korona Kielce
- 40%
- Draw
- 28%
- GKS Katowice
- 32%
| MKS Korona Kielce | Draw | GKS Katowice | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.51 | 3.56 | 3.12 |
- Total goals
- 3.04
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans MKS Korona Kielce
40% MKS Korona Kielce to win
- Attack
- 14th vs 15th
- MKS Korona Kielce attack v GKS Katowice defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 4th
- MKS Korona Kielce defence v GKS Katowice attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.02 vs -0.22
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.60 – 1.44
- MKS Korona Kielce v GKS Katowice
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | MKS Korona Kielce | GKS Katowice |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.40 · 14th | (better) 1.77 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.48 · 8th | 2.00 · 16th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.07 · 10th | -0.23 · 14th |
| xPts / match | 1.27 · 12th | (better) 1.30 · 9th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.02 | -0.22 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- MKS Korona Kielce clean sheet
- 21%
- MKS Korona Kielce 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.3%
- 2:1
- 10.1%
- 1:2
- 8.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MKS Korona Kielce sample
- 20 matches
- GKS Katowice sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · MKS Korona Kielce
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · GKS Katowice
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.