Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 17:30
14d 16h to kick-offLech Poznań – MKS Korona Kielce
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Lech Poznań
- 61%
- Draw
- 24%
- MKS Korona Kielce
- 15%
| Lech Poznań | Draw | MKS Korona Kielce | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.64 | 4.10 | 6.82 |
- Total goals
- 2.96
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Lech Poznań
61% Lech Poznań to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 12th
- Lech Poznań attack v MKS Korona Kielce defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 14th
- Lech Poznań defence v MKS Korona Kielce attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.48 vs -0.02
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.99 – 0.97
- Lech Poznań v MKS Korona Kielce
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Lech Poznań | MKS Korona Kielce |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.07 · 1st | 1.40 · 14th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.89 · 1st | 1.48 · 8th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.18 · 1st | -0.07 · 10th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.07 · 1st | 1.27 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.48 | -0.02 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Lech Poznań clean sheet
- 35%
- Lech Poznań 2+ goals
- 61%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.3%
- 2:1
- 11.8%
- 2:0
- 10.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lech Poznań sample
- 20 matches
- MKS Korona Kielce sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Lech Poznań
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · MKS Korona Kielce
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.