Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00
20d 14h to kick-offWidzew Łódź – Górnik Zabrze
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Widzew Łódź
- 30%
- Draw
- 33%
- Górnik Zabrze
- 38%
| Widzew Łódź | Draw | Górnik Zabrze | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.37 | 3.05 | 2.66 |
- Total goals
- 2.35
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score
- 54%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Górnik Zabrze
38% Górnik Zabrze to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 7th
- Górnik Zabrze attack v Widzew Łódź defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 17th
- Górnik Zabrze defence v Widzew Łódź attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.12 vs -0.42
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.10 – 1.25
- Widzew Łódź v Górnik Zabrze
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Widzew Łódź | Górnik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.57 · 6th | (better) 1.58 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 1.67 · 13th | (better) 1.05 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | -0.10 · 11th | (better) +0.53 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.29 · 11th | (better) 1.79 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.42 | (better) +1.12 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Górnik Zabrze clean sheet
- 30%
- Górnik Zabrze 2+ goals
- 36%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score: no
- 46%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.9%
- 1:2
- 9.7%
- 0:0
- 9.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Widzew Łódź sample
- 20 matches
- Górnik Zabrze sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Widzew Łódź
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Górnik Zabrze
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.