Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 17:30
Full timeLech Poznań 1:0 Raków Częstochowa
Lech Poznań were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 58%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Lech Poznań's attack: 2.84 xG against 1.91 projected (+0.93). Raków Częstochowa produced 0.40 xG against 1.02 projected (−0.62).
Goals
- 71' Leo Bengtsson Lech Poznań · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- Lech Poznań
- 58% What happened
- Draw
- 25%
- Raków Częstochowa
- 17%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Lech Poznań produced 0.93 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 28
- 8
- On target
- 6
- 1
- Inside the box
- 20
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 2.73
- 0.30
- Set-piece xG
- 0.61
- 0.10
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.37 for Lech Poznań.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
36 shots · 3.74 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Lech Poznań
- Raków Częstochowa
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.75 xG created 1.24 xGA
- D 1.23 created, 3.24 conceded against Wisła Płock
- D 0.79 created, 0.88 conceded against Cracovia
- W 1.69 created, 0.99 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
- W 3.12 created, 1.06 conceded against Piast Gliwice
- W 1.89 created, 0.80 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- W 1.78 created, 0.48 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
1.32 xG created 2.06 xGA
- W 0.52 created, 0.60 conceded against MZKS Arka Gdynia
- L 1.46 created, 0.86 conceded against Wisła Płock
- L 3.02 created, 1.52 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
- L 0.85 created, 2.74 conceded against Cracovia
- L 1.24 created, 4.44 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
- L 0.84 created, 2.22 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 4.50 | +14.7% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.60 | +9.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznań | 57.5% | 59.5% | −2.0 pp | 1.74 |
| Draw | 25.5% | 20.3% | +5.2 pp | 3.92 |
| Raków Częstochowa | 17.0% | 20.3% | −3.3 pp | 5.88 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 57.7% | +2.3 pp | 1.67 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.1% | 42.3% | −2.3 pp | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.9% | 82.8% | +0.1 pp | 1.21 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17.1% | 17.2% | −0.1 pp | 5.85 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | 63.8% | −5.9 pp | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.1% | 36.2% | +5.9 pp | 2.38 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lech Poznań sample
- 20 matches
- Raków Częstochowa sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.