Monday, 02/11/2026 at 18:00
Full timeZagłębie Lubin 1:0 MKS Korona Kielce
MKS Korona Kielce were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. Zagłębie Lubin won 1–0. The biggest difference was MKS Korona Kielce's attack: 0.79 xG against 1.28 projected (−0.49).
Goals
- 4' Ariel Mosór (o.g.) Zagłębie Lubin 1–0
The model against the result
- Zagłębie Lubin
- 33% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- MKS Korona Kielce
- 35%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
MKS Korona Kielce produced 0.49 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 17
- On target
- 1
- 4
- Inside the box
- 6
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 0.53
- 0.67
- Set-piece xG
- 0.52
- 0.11
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.04 for Zagłębie Lubin and 0.79 for MKS Korona Kielce.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 1.83 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Zagłębie Lubin
- MKS Korona Kielce
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.43 xG created 1.85 xGA
- W 2.62 created, 1.30 conceded against GKS Katowice
- W 1.38 created, 2.17 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
- L 1.06 created, 1.17 conceded against Wisła Płock
- L 1.07 created, 2.94 conceded against Cracovia
- W 1.93 created, 1.43 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
- D 0.55 created, 2.08 conceded against Motor Lublin
1.53 xG created 1.64 xGA
- W 2.54 created, 1.29 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
- L 0.09 created, 1.77 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
- W 3.46 created, 1.79 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
- L 0.80 created, 0.87 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
- L 1.19 created, 2.24 conceded against Lech Poznań
- W 1.07 created, 1.87 conceded against GKS Katowice
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 qualified edges flagged0 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.20 | +1.1% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | +0.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zagłębie Lubin | 33.2% | 37.4% | −4.2 pp | 3.01 |
| Draw | 31.6% | 28.6% | +2.9 pp | 3.17 |
| MKS Korona Kielce | 35.2% | 33.9% | +1.2 pp | 2.84 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zagłębie Lubin to score | 73.9% | 73.1% | +0.8 pp | 1.35 |
| Zagłębie Lubin not to score | 26.1% | 26.9% | −0.8 pp | 3.84 |
| MKS Korona Kielce to score | 74.8% | 72.3% | +2.5 pp | 1.34 |
| MKS Korona Kielce not to score | 25.2% | 27.7% | −2.5 pp | 3.97 |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | 53.3% | +3.9 pp | 1.75 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.8% | 46.7% | −3.9 pp | 2.34 |
| Zagłębie Lubin 2+ goals | 35.8% | 39.2% | −3.4 pp | 2.79 |
| Zagłębie Lubin at most 1 goal | 64.2% | 60.8% | +3.4 pp | 1.56 |
| MKS Korona Kielce 2+ goals | 37.3% | 37.5% | −0.2 pp | 2.68 |
| MKS Korona Kielce at most 1 goal | 62.7% | 62.5% | +0.2 pp | 1.60 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.9% | 73.1% | +2.8 pp | 1.32 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.1% | 26.9% | −2.8 pp | 4.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.1% | 48.7% | −1.6 pp | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 51.3% | +1.6 pp | 1.89 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Zagłębie Lubin sample
- 20 matches
- MKS Korona Kielce sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 57 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.