Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 17:00
21d 16h to kick-offKristiansund BK – KFUM Oslo
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Kristiansund BK
- 44%
- Draw
- 32%
- KFUM Oslo
- 24%
| Kristiansund BK | Draw | KFUM Oslo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.26 | 3.12 | 4.23 |
- Total goals
- 2.33
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score
- 52%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Kristiansund BK
44% Kristiansund BK to win
- Attack
- 14th vs 14th
- Kristiansund BK attack v KFUM Oslo defence
- Defence
- 13th vs 16th
- Kristiansund BK defence v KFUM Oslo attack
- Recent xG form
- -1.16 vs -1.02
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.37 – 0.97
- Kristiansund BK v KFUM Oslo
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Kristiansund BK | KFUM Oslo |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.97 · 16th | (better) 1.09 · 15th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.72 · 14th | 1.78 · 15th |
| xGD / match | -0.75 · 16th | (better) -0.69 · 15th |
| xPts / match | (better) 0.95 · 15th | 0.94 · 16th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.16 | (better) -1.02 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- Kristiansund BK clean sheet
- 35%
- Kristiansund BK 2+ goals
- 41%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score: no
- 48%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.6%
- 1:0
- 10.9%
- 2:1
- 10.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Kristiansund BK sample
- 20 matches
- KFUM Oslo sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Kristiansund BK
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · KFUM Oslo
- 10 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.