Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 16:00
13d 12h to kick-offKristiansund BK – Aalesunds FK
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Kristiansund BK
- 37%
- Draw
- 30%
- Aalesunds FK
- 34%
| Kristiansund BK | Draw | Aalesunds FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.73 | 3.37 | 2.97 |
- Total goals
- 2.80
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
37% Kristiansund BK to win
- Attack
- 14th vs 16th
- Kristiansund BK attack v Aalesunds FK defence
- Defence
- 13th vs 6th
- Kristiansund BK defence v Aalesunds FK attack
- Recent xG form
- -1.16 vs -0.55
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.43 – 1.37
- Kristiansund BK v Aalesunds FK
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Kristiansund BK | Aalesunds FK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.97 · 16th | (better) 1.40 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.72 · 14th | 1.98 · 16th |
| xGD / match | -0.75 · 16th | (better) -0.58 · 14th |
| xPts / match | 0.95 · 15th | (better) 1.04 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.16 | (better) -0.55 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Kristiansund BK clean sheet
- 23%
- Kristiansund BK 2+ goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.7%
- 2:1
- 9.8%
- 1:2
- 9.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Kristiansund BK sample
- 20 matches
- Aalesunds FK sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Kristiansund BK
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Aalesunds FK
- 10 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.