Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 19:15
Full timeSK Brann 2:1 Bodø/Glimt
Bodø/Glimt were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. SK Brann won 2–1. The biggest difference was SK Brann's attack: 0.76 xG against 1.05 projected (−0.29).
Goals
- 14' Andreas Helmersen Bodø/Glimt · 0.18 xG chance 0–1
- 19' Eggert Aron Guðmundsson SK Brann · 0.16 xG chance 1–1
- 57' Kristall Máni Ingason SK Brann · 0.14 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- SK Brann
- 23% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- Bodø/Glimt
- 47%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
SK Brann produced 0.29 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 6
- 17
- On target
- 2
- 8
- Inside the box
- 6
- 14
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 0.68
- 1.09
- Set-piece xG
- 0.03
- 0.21
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.72 for SK Brann and 1.32 for Bodø/Glimt.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
23 shots · 2.01 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SK Brann
- Bodø/Glimt
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.57 xG created 1.51 xGA
- L 2.37 created, 2.34 conceded against Vålerenga IF
- W 0.78 created, 1.93 conceded against Rosenborg BK
- W 2.38 created, 0.24 conceded against HamKam
- D 0.74 created, 0.97 conceded against Sandefjord Fotball
- L 1.97 created, 1.33 conceded against Lillestrøm SK
- L 1.15 created, 2.22 conceded against IK Start
2.31 xG created 0.84 xGA
- W 2.18 created, 0.69 conceded against Sandefjord Fotball
- W 2.15 created, 0.38 conceded against Lillestrøm SK
- W 1.89 created, 1.30 conceded against Vålerenga IF
- W 2.93 created, 1.04 conceded against Rosenborg BK
- W 1.55 created, 0.59 conceded against Fredrikstad FK
- W 3.16 created, 1.01 conceded against Sandefjord Fotball
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
9 opportunities flagged2 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bodø/Glimt not to score | 10.00 | +91.1% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 8.00 | +84.1% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | +74.6% | Lost |
| Bodø/Glimt at most 1 goal | 3.00 | +60.5% | Won |
| Draw | 4.33 | +30.0% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 2.75 | +19.3% | Lost |
| SK Brann at most 1 goal | 1.57 | +12.8% | Lost |
| SK Brann not to score | 3.50 | +12.6% | Lost |
| SK Brann to win | 4.75 | +9.7% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Brann | 23.1% | 19.9% | +3.2 pp | 4.33 |
| Draw | 30.0% | 21.8% | +8.2 pp | 3.33 |
| Bodø/Glimt | 46.9% | 58.4% | −11.5 pp | 2.13 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Brann to score | 67.8% | 73.1% | −5.3 pp | 1.47 |
| SK Brann not to score | 32.2% | 26.9% | +5.3 pp | 3.11 |
| Bodø/Glimt to score | 80.9% | 90.4% | −9.5 pp | 1.24 |
| Bodø/Glimt not to score | 19.1% | 9.6% | +9.5 pp | 5.23 |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | 66.3% | −9.6 pp | 1.77 |
| Both teams not to score | 43.4% | 33.7% | +9.6 pp | 2.31 |
| SK Brann 2+ goals | 28.2% | 41.1% | −12.9 pp | 3.54 |
| SK Brann at most 1 goal | 71.8% | 58.9% | +12.9 pp | 1.39 |
| Bodø/Glimt 2+ goals | 46.5% | 68.7% | −22.2 pp | 2.15 |
| Bodø/Glimt at most 1 goal | 53.5% | 31.3% | +22.2 pp | 1.87 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | 88.1% | −11.1 pp | 1.30 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.0% | 11.9% | +11.1 pp | 4.35 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 71.8% | −23.2 pp | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.4% | 28.2% | +23.2 pp | 1.95 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SK Brann sample
- 20 matches
- Bodø/Glimt sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.