Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 21:00
6d 20h to kick-offAFC Ajax – NEC Nijmegen
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- AFC Ajax
- 54%
- Draw
- 24%
- NEC Nijmegen
- 22%
| AFC Ajax | Draw | NEC Nijmegen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.84 | 4.22 | 4.58 |
- Total goals
- 3.57
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72%
- Both teams to score
- 72%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 7 outcomes.
-
AFC Ajax
- Model
- 54.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 73.3%
- Probability gap
- −18.8 pp
- Edge
- −30.8%
- Fair odds
- 1.84
- Market odds
- 1.27 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.93
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.4%
-
Draw
- Model
- 23.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 16.9%
- Probability gap
- +6.8 pp
- Edge
- +30.3%
- Fair odds
- 4.22
- Market odds
- 5.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.43
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.4%
-
NEC Nijmegen
- Model
- 21.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 9.8%
- Probability gap
- +12.0 pp
- Edge
- +107.5%
- Fair odds
- 4.58
- Market odds
- 9.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.81
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.4%
Outcomes with value
NEC Nijmegen to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
AFC Ajax not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
AFC Ajax at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
NEC Nijmegen to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Best opportunity
NEC Nijmegen to win
Model 21.8% vs. bookmaker 9.8%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans AFC Ajax
54% AFC Ajax to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 7th
- AFC Ajax attack v NEC Nijmegen defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 6th
- AFC Ajax defence v NEC Nijmegen attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.40 vs -0.45
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.17 – 1.40
- AFC Ajax v NEC Nijmegen
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | AFC Ajax | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.65 · 3rd | 1.60 · 8th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.25 · 4th | 1.92 · 10th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.40 · 5th | -0.32 · 9th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.20 · 4th | 1.18 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.40 | -0.45 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 28% of the model's distribution.
- AFC Ajax clean sheet
- 22%
- AFC Ajax 2+ goals
- 66%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 28%
- Both teams to score: no
- 28%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 10.5%
- 1:1
- 9.9%
- 2:2
- 7.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- AFC Ajax sample
- 20 matches
- NEC Nijmegen sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · AFC Ajax
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · NEC Nijmegen
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.