AFC Ajax 5:1 Willem II Tilburg: xG & match report · Eredivisie

Tuesday, 15/09/2026 at 20:00

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Match report · Eredivisie

AFC Ajax Home 3.79 xG · 33 shots

Willem II Tilburg Away 1.58 xG · 10 shots

51 The scoreline reflected the chances

AFC Ajax were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 61%. They won 5–1. The biggest difference was AFC Ajax's attack: 3.79 xG against 2.29 projected (+1.50). Willem II Tilburg produced 1.58 xG against 1.21 projected (+0.37).

Goals

41' Davy Klaassen AFC Ajax · 0.28 xG chance 1–0
45' Julian Brandt AFC Ajax · 0.11 xG chance 2–0
69' Viktor Tsygankov AFC Ajax · 0.15 xG chance 3–0
74' Oscar Gloukh AFC Ajax · 0.44 xG chance 4–0
76' Alessandro Ciranni Willem II Tilburg · 0.76 xG chance 4–1
87' Kasper Dolberg AFC Ajax · 0.70 xG chance 5–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AFC Ajax: 61% What happened
Draw: 22%
Willem II Tilburg: 16%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AFC Ajax 2.29 3.79 +1.50

Willem II Tilburg 1.21 1.58 +0.37

AFC Ajax produced 1.50 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AFC Ajax Willem II Tilburg

Shots: 33; 10
On target: 13; 4
Inside the box: 26; 7
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.16
Open play xG: 3.18; 1.53
Set-piece xG: 0.63; 0.02
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.79 for AFC Ajax and 1.58 for Willem II Tilburg.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

43 shots · 5.36 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

AFC Ajax
Willem II Tilburg
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AFC Ajax

2.28 xG created 1.22 xGA

D 1.47 created, 0.96 conceded against FC Utrecht
W 1.97 created, 0.59 conceded against PEC Zwolle
D 2.00 created, 1.36 conceded against SC Heerenveen
W 2.13 created, 1.13 conceded against SC Telstar
L 1.99 created, 2.55 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
W 4.13 created, 0.71 conceded against Fortuna Sittard

Willem II Tilburg

1.29 xG created 2.17 xGA

L 1.51 created, 2.43 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles
L 1.43 created, 2.99 conceded against NEC Nijmegen
D 1.70 created, 1.35 conceded against SC Heerenveen
L 0.86 created, 1.60 conceded against Excelsior
D 0.93 created, 2.48 conceded against AZ Alkmaar

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged2 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AFC Ajax against Willem II Tilburg before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Willem II Tilburg to win	19.00	+211.7%	Lost
Draw	9.00	+99.1%	Lost
AFC Ajax at most 1 goal	6.00	+85.7%	Lost
AFC Ajax not to score	21.00	+75.8%	Lost
Willem II Tilburg 2+ goals	5.00	+73.5%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	4.33	+29.4%	Lost
Willem II Tilburg to score	1.73	+26.2%	Won
Both teams to score	1.75	+19.2%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	11.00	+14.6%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AFC Ajax	61.5%	84.6%	−23.1 pp	1.63
Draw	22.1%	10.4%	+11.7 pp	4.52
Willem II Tilburg	16.4%	4.9%	+11.5 pp	6.10

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AFC Ajax to score	91.6%	95.4%	−3.8 pp	1.09
AFC Ajax not to score	8.4%	4.6%	+3.8 pp	11.94
Willem II Tilburg to score	73.1%	53.7%	+19.4 pp	1.37
Willem II Tilburg not to score	26.9%	46.3%	−19.4 pp	3.72
Both teams to score	68.1%	53.3%	+14.8 pp	1.47
Both teams not to score	31.9%	46.7%	−14.8 pp	3.13
AFC Ajax 2+ goals	69.0%	84.2%	−15.2 pp	1.45
AFC Ajax at most 1 goal	31.0%	15.8%	+15.2 pp	3.23
Willem II Tilburg 2+ goals	34.7%	18.9%	+15.8 pp	2.88
Willem II Tilburg at most 1 goal	65.3%	81.1%	−15.8 pp	1.53
Over 1.5 goals	89.6%	91.3%	−1.7 pp	1.12
Under 1.5 goals	10.4%	8.7%	+1.7 pp	9.60
Over 2.5 goals	70.1%	78.3%	−8.2 pp	1.43
Under 2.5 goals	29.9%	21.7%	+8.2 pp	3.35

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AFC Ajax sample: 20 matches
Willem II Tilburg sample: 5 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Willem II Tilburg has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.