Fortuna Sittard 1:5 AFC Ajax: xG & match report · Eredivisie

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 20:00

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Match report · Eredivisie

Fortuna Sittard Home 0.71 xG · 8 shots

AFC Ajax Away 4.13 xG · 27 shots

15 The scoreline reflected the chances

AFC Ajax were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 58%. They won 5–1. The biggest difference was AFC Ajax's attack: 4.13 xG against 2.09 projected (+2.04). Fortuna Sittard produced 0.71 xG against 1.16 projected (−0.45).

Goals

35' Julian Brandt AFC Ajax · 0.18 xG chance 0–1
52' Anthony Descotte Fortuna Sittard · 0.32 xG chance 1–1
62' Thilo Kehrer AFC Ajax · 0.27 xG chance 1–2
73' Davy Klaassen AFC Ajax · 0.49 xG chance 1–3
79' Kasper Dolberg AFC Ajax · 0.81 xG chance 1–4
90' Youri Baas AFC Ajax · 0.17 xG chance 1–5

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Fortuna Sittard: 18%
Draw: 24%
AFC Ajax: 58% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Fortuna Sittard 1.16 0.71 -0.45

AFC Ajax 2.09 4.13 +2.04

AFC Ajax produced 2.04 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Fortuna Sittard AFC Ajax

Shots: 8; 27
On target: 4; 11
Inside the box: 4; 24
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.15
Open play xG: 0.65; 2.98
Set-piece xG: 0.04; 1.19
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.71 for Fortuna Sittard and 4.18 for AFC Ajax.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

35 shots · 4.86 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Fortuna Sittard
AFC Ajax
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Fortuna Sittard

0.87 xG created 2.32 xGA

L 0.48 created, 2.09 conceded against FC Utrecht
D 0.98 created, 2.56 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
W 1.91 created, 2.51 conceded against SC Cambuur
L 0.44 created, 4.35 conceded against AZ Alkmaar
W 0.87 created, 1.92 conceded against FC Groningen
W 0.55 created, 0.48 conceded against ADO Den Haag

AFC Ajax

1.90 xG created 1.13 xGA

W 1.83 created, 0.16 conceded against FC Groningen
D 1.47 created, 0.96 conceded against FC Utrecht
W 1.97 created, 0.59 conceded against PEC Zwolle
D 2.00 created, 1.36 conceded against SC Heerenveen
W 2.13 created, 1.13 conceded against SC Telstar
L 1.99 created, 2.55 conceded against PSV Eindhoven

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Fortuna Sittard: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged2 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Fortuna Sittard against AFC Ajax before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	5.75	+37.5%	Lost
AFC Ajax at most 1 goal	3.25	+16.8%	Lost
Fortuna Sittard to win	6.50	+15.8%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.10	+7.9%	Lost
AFC Ajax not to score	10.00	+3.9%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.53	+0.3%	Won
Fortuna Sittard to score	1.40	+0.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Fortuna Sittard	17.8%	14.5%	+3.3 pp	5.61
Draw	23.9%	16.4%	+7.5 pp	4.18
AFC Ajax	58.3%	69.1%	−10.8 pp	1.72

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Fortuna Sittard to score	71.6%	66.3%	+5.3 pp	1.40
Fortuna Sittard not to score	28.4%	33.7%	−5.3 pp	3.52
AFC Ajax to score	89.6%	90.4%	−0.8 pp	1.12
AFC Ajax not to score	10.4%	9.6%	+0.8 pp	9.62
Both teams to score	65.4%	60.8%	+4.7 pp	1.53
Both teams not to score	34.6%	39.2%	−4.7 pp	2.89
Fortuna Sittard 2+ goals	32.9%	31.3%	+1.6 pp	3.04
Fortuna Sittard at most 1 goal	67.1%	68.7%	−1.6 pp	1.49
AFC Ajax 2+ goals	64.1%	70.9%	−6.8 pp	1.56
AFC Ajax at most 1 goal	35.9%	29.1%	+6.8 pp	2.78
Over 1.5 goals	87.0%	86.4%	+0.6 pp	1.15
Under 1.5 goals	13.0%	13.6%	−0.6 pp	7.72
Over 2.5 goals	65.2%	69.4%	−4.3 pp	1.53
Under 2.5 goals	34.8%	30.6%	+4.3 pp	2.87

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Fortuna Sittard sample: 20 matches
AFC Ajax sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.