Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 16:30
6d 15h to kick-offGo Ahead Eagles – Sparta Rotterdam
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Go Ahead Eagles
- 49%
- Draw
- 25%
- Sparta Rotterdam
- 27%
| Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.06 | 4.07 | 3.73 |
- Total goals
- 3.62
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72%
- Both teams to score
- 74%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 6 outcomes.
-
Go Ahead Eagles
- Model
- 48.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 54.0%
- Probability gap
- −5.4 pp
- Edge
- −16.0%
- Fair odds
- 2.06
- Market odds
- 1.73 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.16
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.3%
-
Draw
- Model
- 24.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 23.3%
- Probability gap
- +1.3 pp
- Edge
- −1.8%
- Fair odds
- 4.07
- Market odds
- 4.00 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.28
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.3%
-
Sparta Rotterdam
- Model
- 26.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 22.7%
- Probability gap
- +4.1 pp
- Edge
- +10.0%
- Fair odds
- 3.73
- Market odds
- 4.10 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.91
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.3%
Outcomes with value
Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Sparta Rotterdam to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Sparta Rotterdam to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals
Model 47.5% vs. bookmaker 39.2%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Go Ahead Eagles
49% Go Ahead Eagles to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 16th
- Go Ahead Eagles attack v Sparta Rotterdam defence
- Defence
- 14th vs 11th
- Go Ahead Eagles defence v Sparta Rotterdam attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.17 vs -0.12
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.06 – 1.55
- Go Ahead Eagles v Sparta Rotterdam
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Go Ahead Eagles | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.91 · 6th | 1.64 · 7th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.63 · 8th | 2.10 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.28 · 6th | -0.46 · 11th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.59 · 6th | 1.15 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.17 | -0.12 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 28% of the model's distribution.
- Go Ahead Eagles clean sheet
- 19%
- Go Ahead Eagles 2+ goals
- 63%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 28%
- Both teams to score: no
- 26%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 10.0%
- 2:1
- 9.9%
- 2:2
- 8.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Go Ahead Eagles sample
- 20 matches
- Sparta Rotterdam sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Go Ahead Eagles
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Sparta Rotterdam
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.