Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 18:45
Full timeSparta Rotterdam 0:4 SC Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. SC Heerenveen won 4–0. The biggest difference was Sparta Rotterdam's attack: 0.67 xG against 1.85 projected (−1.18).
Goals
- 28' Nolhan Courtens SC Heerenveen · 0.66 xG chance 0–1
- 43' Jacob Trenskow SC Heerenveen · 0.04 xG chance 0–2
- 56' Maxence Rivera SC Heerenveen · 0.09 xG chance 0–3
- 75' Marko Farji SC Heerenveen · 0.11 xG chance 0–4
The model against the result
- Sparta Rotterdam
- 43%
- Draw
- 26%
- SC Heerenveen
- 31% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Sparta Rotterdam produced 1.18 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 23
- On target
- 0
- 9
- Inside the box
- 7
- 14
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 0.69
- 1.46
- Set-piece xG
- 0.00
- 0.38
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.67 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.80 for SC Heerenveen.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
34 shots · 2.53 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Sparta Rotterdam
- SC Heerenveen
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.80 xG created 2.15 xGA
1.17 xG created 1.48 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam to win | 2.45 | +5.7% | Lost |
| Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals | 1.80 | +2.8% | Lost |
| Sparta Rotterdam to score | 1.17 | +1.0% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | +0.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | 43.1% | 38.7% | +4.5 pp | 2.32 |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.3% | +0.9 pp | 3.83 |
| SC Heerenveen | 30.8% | 36.1% | −5.3 pp | 3.25 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam to score | 86.5% | 81.1% | +5.5 pp | 1.16 |
| Sparta Rotterdam not to score | 13.5% | 18.9% | −5.5 pp | 7.42 |
| SC Heerenveen to score | 81.8% | 79.2% | +2.6 pp | 1.22 |
| SC Heerenveen not to score | 18.2% | 20.8% | −2.6 pp | 5.50 |
| Both teams to score | 72.1% | 66.3% | +5.8 pp | 1.39 |
| Both teams not to score | 27.9% | 33.7% | −5.8 pp | 3.58 |
| Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals | 57.1% | 51.5% | +5.7 pp | 1.75 |
| Sparta Rotterdam at most 1 goal | 42.9% | 48.5% | −5.7 pp | 2.33 |
| SC Heerenveen 2+ goals | 48.0% | 50.0% | −2.0 pp | 2.08 |
| SC Heerenveen at most 1 goal | 52.0% | 50.0% | +2.0 pp | 1.92 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.9% | 85.4% | +3.5 pp | 1.12 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 11.1% | 14.6% | −3.5 pp | 9.04 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.6% | 67.3% | +1.3 pp | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.4% | 32.7% | −1.3 pp | 3.18 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sparta Rotterdam sample
- 20 matches
- SC Heerenveen sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.