Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
PEC Zwolle – Fortuna Sittard
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- PEC Zwolle
- 44%
- Draw
- 28%
- Fortuna Sittard
- 28%
| PEC Zwolle | Draw | Fortuna Sittard | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.27 | 3.54 | 3.62 |
- Total goals
- 2.95
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans PEC Zwolle
44% PEC Zwolle to win
- Attack
- 16th vs 17th
- PEC Zwolle attack v Fortuna Sittard defence
- Defence
- 15th vs 17th
- PEC Zwolle defence v Fortuna Sittard attack
- Recent xG form
- -1.08 vs -1.44
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.65 – 1.30
- PEC Zwolle v Fortuna Sittard
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | PEC Zwolle | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.94 · 17th | (better) 0.97 · 16th |
| xGA / match | (better) 2.06 · 14th | 2.42 · 18th |
| xGD / match | (better) -1.12 · 17th | -1.46 · 18th |
| xPts / match | (better) 0.73 · 17th | 0.72 · 18th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -1.08 | -1.43 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- PEC Zwolle clean sheet
- 25%
- PEC Zwolle 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.7%
- 2:1
- 10.7%
- 1:2
- 8.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- PEC Zwolle sample
- 20 matches
- Fortuna Sittard sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · PEC Zwolle
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Fortuna Sittard
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.