Willem II Tilburg 0:1 Fortuna Sittard: xG & match report · Eredivisie

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 21:00

Full time

Match report · Eredivisie

Willem II Tilburg Home 1.01 xG · 15 shots

Fortuna Sittard Away 1.31 xG · 17 shots

01 The scoreline reflected the chances

Willem II Tilburg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. Fortuna Sittard won 1–0. The biggest difference was Willem II Tilburg's attack: 1.01 xG against 1.90 projected (−0.89).

Goals

79' Philip Brittijn Fortuna Sittard · 0.61 xG chance 0–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Willem II Tilburg: 48%
Draw: 26%
Fortuna Sittard: 26% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Willem II Tilburg 1.90 1.01 -0.89

Fortuna Sittard 1.39 1.31 -0.08

Willem II Tilburg produced 0.89 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Willem II Tilburg Fortuna Sittard

Shots: 15; 17
On target: 3; 3
Inside the box: 9; 7
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.08
Open play xG: 0.96; 1.25
Set-piece xG: 0.03; 0.03
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.01 for Willem II Tilburg and 1.33 for Fortuna Sittard.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

32 shots · 2.27 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Willem II Tilburg
Fortuna Sittard
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Willem II Tilburg

1.34 xG created 2.44 xGA

L 1.51 created, 2.43 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles
L 1.43 created, 2.99 conceded against NEC Nijmegen
D 1.70 created, 1.35 conceded against SC Heerenveen
L 0.86 created, 1.60 conceded against Excelsior
D 0.93 created, 2.48 conceded against AZ Alkmaar
L 1.58 created, 3.79 conceded against AFC Ajax

Fortuna Sittard

0.91 xG created 2.66 xGA

D 0.98 created, 2.56 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
W 1.91 created, 2.51 conceded against SC Cambuur
L 0.44 created, 4.35 conceded against AZ Alkmaar
W 0.87 created, 1.92 conceded against FC Groningen
W 0.55 created, 0.48 conceded against ADO Den Haag
L 0.71 created, 4.13 conceded against AFC Ajax

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Willem II Tilburg against Fortuna Sittard before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Willem II Tilburg to win	2.63	+26.8%	Lost
Willem II Tilburg 2+ goals	2.00	+17.4%	Lost
Fortuna Sittard at most 1 goal	1.80	+4.9%	Won
Willem II Tilburg to score	1.20	+4.7%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.17	+2.3%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.53	+1.3%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.44	+0.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Willem II Tilburg	48.3%	36.0%	+12.4 pp	2.07
Draw	26.0%	25.5%	+0.5 pp	3.85
Fortuna Sittard	25.7%	38.5%	−12.8 pp	3.89

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Willem II Tilburg to score	87.2%	78.3%	+8.9 pp	1.15
Willem II Tilburg not to score	12.8%	21.7%	−8.9 pp	7.82
Fortuna Sittard to score	78.0%	78.3%	−0.3 pp	1.28
Fortuna Sittard not to score	22.0%	21.7%	+0.3 pp	4.54
Both teams to score	69.4%	64.5%	+4.9 pp	1.44
Both teams not to score	30.6%	35.5%	−4.9 pp	3.26
Willem II Tilburg 2+ goals	58.7%	46.3%	+12.4 pp	1.70
Willem II Tilburg at most 1 goal	41.3%	53.7%	−12.4 pp	2.42
Fortuna Sittard 2+ goals	41.7%	48.5%	−6.8 pp	2.40
Fortuna Sittard at most 1 goal	58.3%	51.5%	+6.8 pp	1.72
Over 1.5 goals	87.6%	81.1%	+6.5 pp	1.14
Under 1.5 goals	12.4%	18.9%	−6.5 pp	8.08
Over 2.5 goals	66.1%	61.0%	+5.1 pp	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	33.9%	39.0%	−5.1 pp	2.95

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Willem II Tilburg sample: 6 matches
Fortuna Sittard sample: 20 matches
Computed: 12 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 12 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Willem II Tilburg has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.