Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 12:15
14d 11h to kick-offPEC Zwolle – Go Ahead Eagles
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- PEC Zwolle
- 32%
- Draw
- 27%
- Go Ahead Eagles
- 41%
| PEC Zwolle | Draw | Go Ahead Eagles | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.12 | 3.69 | 2.45 |
- Total goals
- 3.24
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65%
- Both teams to score
- 70%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Go Ahead Eagles
41% Go Ahead Eagles to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 15th
- Go Ahead Eagles attack v PEC Zwolle defence
- Defence
- 14th vs 16th
- Go Ahead Eagles defence v PEC Zwolle attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.17 vs -1.08
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.53 – 1.72
- PEC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | PEC Zwolle | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.94 · 17th | (better) 1.91 · 6th |
| xGA / match | 2.06 · 14th | (better) 1.63 · 8th |
| xGD / match | -1.12 · 17th | (better) +0.28 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 0.73 · 17th | (better) 1.59 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.08 | (better) +0.17 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- Go Ahead Eagles clean sheet
- 19%
- Go Ahead Eagles 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 35%
- Both teams to score: no
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.2%
- 1:2
- 10.0%
- 2:1
- 8.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- PEC Zwolle sample
- 20 matches
- Go Ahead Eagles sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · PEC Zwolle
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Go Ahead Eagles
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.