Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 20:00
14d 13h to kick-offNEC Nijmegen – Fortuna Sittard
Model updated 4 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- NEC Nijmegen
- 62%
- Draw
- 23%
- Fortuna Sittard
- 16%
| NEC Nijmegen | Draw | Fortuna Sittard | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.63 | 4.39 | 6.37 |
- Total goals
- 3.32
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans NEC Nijmegen
62% NEC Nijmegen to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 17th
- NEC Nijmegen attack v Fortuna Sittard defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 17th
- NEC Nijmegen defence v Fortuna Sittard attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.45 vs -1.44
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.19 – 1.12
- NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.60 · 8th | 0.97 · 16th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.92 · 10th | 2.42 · 18th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.32 · 9th | -1.46 · 18th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.18 · 10th | 0.72 · 18th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.45 | -1.43 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- NEC Nijmegen clean sheet
- 29%
- NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals
- 67%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 33%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 11.3%
- 1:1
- 10.7%
- 2:0
- 8.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NEC Nijmegen sample
- 20 matches
- Fortuna Sittard sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NEC Nijmegen
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Fortuna Sittard
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.