GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2:1 HNK Rijeka: xG & match report · HNL

Tuesday, 27/10/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · HNL

GNK Dinamo Zagreb Home 1.50 xG · 16 shots

HNK Rijeka Away 0.41 xG · 5 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

GNK Dinamo Zagreb were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was HNK Rijeka's attack: 0.41 xG against 1.09 projected (−0.68).

Goals

35' Luka Stojković GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 0.13 xG chance 1–0
63' Samuele Vignato HNK Rijeka · 0.08 xG chance 1–1
85' Luka Stojković GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 0.05 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

GNK Dinamo Zagreb: 39% What happened
Draw: 32%
HNK Rijeka: 29%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

GNK Dinamo Zagreb 1.28 1.50 +0.22

HNK Rijeka 1.09 0.41 -0.68

HNK Rijeka produced 0.68 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

GNK Dinamo Zagreb HNK Rijeka

Shots: 16; 5
On target: 7; 1
Inside the box: 11; 4
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.08
Open play xG: 1.27; 0.17
Set-piece xG: 0.25; 0.22
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.51 for GNK Dinamo Zagreb and 0.41 for HNK Rijeka.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

21 shots · 1.91 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

GNK Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Rijeka
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

GNK Dinamo Zagreb

1.98 xG created 1.38 xGA

D 2.06 created, 0.84 conceded against NK Istra 1961
W 1.70 created, 0.79 conceded against HNK Gorica
L 1.90 created, 2.05 conceded against NK Osijek
W 1.88 created, 1.42 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
L 0.63 created, 1.05 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
W 3.71 created, 2.11 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo

HNK Rijeka

1.62 xG created 0.78 xGA

D 0.40 created, 0.15 conceded against HNK Gorica
W 2.66 created, 0.35 conceded against NK Osijek
D 2.01 created, 0.39 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
W 1.46 created, 1.28 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
L 2.12 created, 1.81 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
W 1.08 created, 0.67 conceded against NK Rudeš

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

GNK Dinamo Zagreb: 2 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 qualified edges flagged1 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on GNK Dinamo Zagreb against HNK Rijeka before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
GNK Dinamo Zagreb not to score	6.50	+63.5%	Lost
HNK Rijeka to win	5.25	+51.8%	Lost
GNK Dinamo Zagreb at most 1 goal	2.20	+37.9%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.15	+22.6%	Lost
Draw	3.70	+20.1%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.33	+17.8%	Lost
HNK Rijeka 2+ goals	3.75	+12.2%	Lost
HNK Rijeka to score	1.53	+6.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
GNK Dinamo Zagreb	38.6%	58.6%	−20.0 pp	2.59
Draw	32.5%	24.3%	+8.2 pp	3.08
HNK Rijeka	28.9%	17.1%	+11.8 pp	3.46

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
GNK Dinamo Zagreb to score	74.8%	85.4%	−10.6 pp	1.34
GNK Dinamo Zagreb not to score	25.2%	14.6%	+10.6 pp	3.97
HNK Rijeka to score	69.4%	60.8%	+8.6 pp	1.44
HNK Rijeka not to score	30.6%	39.2%	−8.6 pp	3.27
Both teams to score	53.9%	53.7%	+0.2 pp	1.86
Both teams not to score	46.1%	46.3%	−0.2 pp	2.17
GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals	37.3%	57.7%	−20.3 pp	2.68
GNK Dinamo Zagreb at most 1 goal	62.7%	42.3%	+20.3 pp	1.60
HNK Rijeka 2+ goals	29.9%	25.0%	+4.9 pp	3.34
HNK Rijeka at most 1 goal	70.1%	75.0%	−4.9 pp	1.43
Over 1.5 goals	72.8%	78.3%	−5.5 pp	1.37
Under 1.5 goals	27.2%	21.7%	+5.5 pp	3.68
Over 2.5 goals	43.0%	56.3%	−13.4 pp	2.33
Under 2.5 goals	57.0%	43.7%	+13.4 pp	1.75

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
GNK Dinamo Zagreb sample: 20 matches
HNK Rijeka sample: 20 matches
Computed: 13 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.