Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 21:00
Full timeHNK Rijeka 4:1 NK Osijek
HNK Rijeka were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 4–1. The biggest difference was HNK Rijeka's attack: 2.66 xG against 1.33 projected (+1.33). NK Osijek produced 0.35 xG against 0.77 projected (−0.42).
Goals
- 15' Armando León NK Osijek · 0.05 xG chance 0–1
- 21' Samuele Vignato HNK Rijeka · 0.04 xG chance 1–1
- 33' Daniel Adu-Adjei HNK Rijeka · 0.87 xG chance 2–1
- 43' Daniel Adu-Adjei HNK Rijeka · 0.09 xG chance 3–1
- 61' Toni Fruk HNK Rijeka · 0.13 xG chance 4–1
The model against the result
- HNK Rijeka
- 48% What happened
- Draw
- 33%
- NK Osijek
- 19%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
HNK Rijeka produced 1.33 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 23
- 9
- On target
- 14
- 3
- Inside the box
- 20
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.04
- Open play xG
- 2.19
- 0.18
- Set-piece xG
- 0.40
- 0.17
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.58 for HNK Rijeka.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
32 shots · 2.94 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- HNK Rijeka
- NK Osijek
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.22 xG created 0.78 xGA
1.73 xG created 0.90 xGA
- L 1.29 created, 0.55 conceded against HNK Gorica
- W 2.70 created, 0.82 conceded against HNK Gorica
- W 2.76 created, 0.60 conceded against NK Rudeš
- W 1.70 created, 0.92 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- L 0.50 created, 1.66 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
- W 1.43 created, 0.88 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | +19.9% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.50 | +18.3% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 2.00 | +9.6% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.25 | +6.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Rijeka | 48.4% | 50.9% | −2.5 pp | 2.06 |
| Draw | 32.7% | 27.4% | +5.3 pp | 3.06 |
| NK Osijek | 18.9% | 21.7% | −2.9 pp | 5.30 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 45.2% | 53.7% | −8.5 pp | 2.21 |
| Both teams not to score | 54.8% | 46.3% | +8.5 pp | 1.82 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.2% | 73.1% | −6.9 pp | 1.51 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 33.8% | 26.9% | +6.9 pp | 2.96 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.2% | 48.7% | −13.5 pp | 2.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 64.8% | 51.3% | +13.5 pp | 1.54 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- HNK Rijeka sample
- 20 matches
- NK Osijek sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.