HNK Gorica 0:0 HNK Rijeka: xG & match report · HNL

Monday, 31/08/2026 at 21:30

Full time

Match report · HNL

HNK Gorica Home 0.15 xG · 3 shots

HNK Rijeka Away 0.40 xG · 11 shots

00 HNK Rijeka had the better chances, but it finished level

HNK Rijeka were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was HNK Rijeka's attack: 0.40 xG against 1.27 projected (−0.87). HNK Gorica produced 0.15 xG against 0.84 projected (−0.69).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

HNK Gorica: 21%
Draw: 33% What happened
HNK Rijeka: 45%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

HNK Gorica 0.84 0.15 -0.69

HNK Rijeka 1.27 0.40 -0.87

HNK Rijeka produced 0.87 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

HNK Gorica HNK Rijeka

Shots: 3; 11
On target: 0; 2
Inside the box: 1; 8
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.04
Open play xG: 0.16; 0.20
Set-piece xG: 0.00; 0.22
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.16 for HNK Gorica and 0.40 for HNK Rijeka.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

14 shots · 0.58 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

HNK Gorica
HNK Rijeka
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

HNK Gorica

0.88 xG created 1.46 xGA

W 0.55 created, 1.29 conceded against NK Osijek
L 0.14 created, 1.40 conceded against HNK Rijeka
L 0.82 created, 2.70 conceded against NK Osijek
L 1.54 created, 1.13 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
L 1.27 created, 1.20 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
L 0.93 created, 1.07 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo

HNK Rijeka

1.49 xG created 0.80 xGA

W 2.01 created, 0.27 conceded against HNK Vukovar 1991
D 0.55 created, 1.17 conceded against NK Istra 1961
W 1.40 created, 0.14 conceded against HNK Gorica
W 2.33 created, 0.28 conceded against NK Rudeš
L 0.72 created, 1.75 conceded against NK Varaždin
W 1.95 created, 1.19 conceded against NK Istra 1961

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

HNK Gorica: 1 won · 0 drawn · 3 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged5 won1 lost

Won
Won
Won
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on HNK Gorica against HNK Rijeka before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
HNK Rijeka not to score	5.50	+37.3%	Won
HNK Rijeka at most 1 goal	2.00	+25.6%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.85	+19.2%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	3.50	+16.7%	Won
Draw	3.50	+16.6%	Won
HNK Gorica to win	5.00	+7.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
HNK Gorica	21.5%	17.8%	+3.7 pp	4.65
Draw	33.3%	25.5%	+7.8 pp	3.00
HNK Rijeka	45.2%	56.7%	−11.5 pp	2.21

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
HNK Gorica to score	59.5%	57.7%	+1.8 pp	1.68
HNK Gorica not to score	40.5%	42.3%	−1.8 pp	2.47
HNK Rijeka to score	75.0%	82.8%	−7.7 pp	1.33
HNK Rijeka not to score	25.0%	17.2%	+7.7 pp	4.01
Both teams to score	46.6%	50.0%	−3.4 pp	2.15
Both teams not to score	53.4%	50.0%	+3.4 pp	1.87
HNK Gorica 2+ goals	20.0%	23.4%	−3.4 pp	5.01
HNK Gorica at most 1 goal	80.0%	76.6%	+3.4 pp	1.25
HNK Rijeka 2+ goals	37.2%	53.7%	−16.4 pp	2.69
HNK Rijeka at most 1 goal	62.8%	46.3%	+16.4 pp	1.59
Over 1.5 goals	66.6%	73.1%	−6.5 pp	1.50
Under 1.5 goals	33.4%	26.9%	+6.5 pp	3.00
Over 2.5 goals	35.6%	48.7%	−13.1 pp	2.81
Under 2.5 goals	64.4%	51.3%	+13.1 pp	1.55

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
HNK Gorica sample: 20 matches
HNK Rijeka sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.