Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 18:00
Full timeNK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1:3 NK Osijek
NK Osijek were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was NK Osijek's attack: 2.19 xG against 1.41 projected (+0.78). NK Lokomotiva Zagreb produced 1.87 xG against 1.22 projected (+0.65).
Goals
- 7' Luka Tunjić NK Osijek · 0.04 xG chance 0–1
- 36' Niko Farkaš NK Osijek · 0.15 xG chance 0–2
- 60' Mirko Marić NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 0.11 xG chance 1–2
- 90' Balelo NK Osijek · 0.76 xG chance 1–3
The model against the result
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 30%
- Draw
- 31%
- NK Osijek
- 39% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
NK Osijek produced 0.78 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 12
- On target
- 5
- 6
- Inside the box
- 11
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.19
- Open play xG
- 1.38
- 1.89
- Set-piece xG
- 0.50
- 0.34
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.87 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 2.19 for NK Osijek.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 4.11 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- NK Osijek
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.19 xG created 1.38 xGA
- L 1.95 created, 1.37 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
- D 0.39 created, 2.01 conceded against HNK Rijeka
- L 1.42 created, 1.88 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- L 1.12 created, 1.13 conceded against NK Varaždin
- W 1.45 created, 0.56 conceded against NK Istra 1961
- D 0.80 created, 1.31 conceded against HNK Gorica
0.99 xG created 1.72 xGA
- L 0.35 created, 2.66 conceded against HNK Rijeka
- W 2.05 created, 1.90 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- D 0.59 created, 0.81 conceded against NK Varaždin
- L 0.73 created, 2.58 conceded against NK Istra 1961
- D 1.65 created, 0.52 conceded against HNK Gorica
- L 0.54 created, 1.83 conceded against NK Rudeš
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
- NK Osijek 1:0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 15/08/2026 xG 1.70 – 0.92
- NK Osijek 0:0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 25/04/2026 xG 1.38 – 0.32
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3:1 NK Osijek 21/02/2026 xG 1.25 – 1.45
- NK Osijek 1:1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 23/11/2025 xG 0.66 – 3.81
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1:1 NK Osijek 31/08/2025 xG 1.46 – 1.57
Pre-match model & market record
1 qualified edge flagged1 won0 lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at most 1 goal | 1.57 | +1.9% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 30.0% | 36.0% | −6.0 pp | 3.33 |
| Draw | 30.7% | 28.1% | +2.6 pp | 3.26 |
| NK Osijek | 39.3% | 36.0% | +3.3 pp | 2.54 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb to score | 73.5% | 75.0% | −1.5 pp | 1.36 |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb not to score | 26.5% | 25.0% | +1.5 pp | 3.77 |
| NK Osijek to score | 78.4% | 75.0% | +3.4 pp | 1.28 |
| NK Osijek not to score | 21.6% | 25.0% | −3.4 pp | 4.63 |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 57.7% | +1.7 pp | 1.68 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.6% | 42.3% | −1.7 pp | 2.46 |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals | 35.2% | 41.1% | −6.0 pp | 2.84 |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at most 1 goal | 64.8% | 58.9% | +6.0 pp | 1.54 |
| NK Osijek 2+ goals | 42.3% | 41.1% | +1.2 pp | 2.36 |
| NK Osijek at most 1 goal | 57.7% | 58.9% | −1.2 pp | 1.73 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.2% | 76.6% | +1.6 pp | 1.28 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.8% | 23.4% | −1.6 pp | 4.59 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.2% | 52.6% | −2.4 pp | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.8% | 47.4% | +2.4 pp | 2.01 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb sample
- 20 matches
- NK Osijek sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 38 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.