Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 17:00
13d 15h to kick-offNK Osijek – HNK Gorica
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- NK Osijek
- 55%
- Draw
- 29%
- HNK Gorica
- 16%
| NK Osijek | Draw | HNK Gorica | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.83 | 3.40 | 6.21 |
- Total goals
- 2.36
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score
- 49%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans NK Osijek
55% NK Osijek to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 6th
- NK Osijek attack v HNK Gorica defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 9th
- NK Osijek defence v HNK Gorica attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.37 vs -0.42
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.56 – 0.80
- NK Osijek v HNK Gorica
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NK Osijek | HNK Gorica |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.51 · 4th | 0.87 · 9th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.28 · 6th | 1.37 · 7th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.23 · 5th | -0.50 · 7th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.53 · 5th | 0.95 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.37 | -0.42 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 39% of the model's distribution.
- NK Osijek clean sheet
- 42%
- NK Osijek 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score: no
- 51%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.3%
- 1:0
- 12.4%
- 2:0
- 11.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Osijek sample
- 20 matches
- HNK Gorica sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NK Osijek
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · HNK Gorica
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.