NK Varaždin 0:0 NK Osijek: xG & match report · HNL

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · HNL

NK Varaždin Home 0.81 xG · 13 shots

NK Osijek Away 0.59 xG · 11 shots

00 The chances were evenly matched

NK Varaždin were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was NK Osijek's attack: 0.59 xG against 1.10 projected (−0.51). NK Varaždin produced 0.81 xG against 1.28 projected (−0.47).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NK Varaždin: 38%
Draw: 32% What happened
NK Osijek: 29%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NK Varaždin 1.28 0.81 -0.47

NK Osijek 1.10 0.59 -0.51

NK Osijek produced 0.51 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NK Varaždin NK Osijek

Shots: 13; 11
On target: 2; 2
Inside the box: 10; 6
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.05
Open play xG: 0.37; 0.52
Set-piece xG: 0.47; 0.06
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.84 for NK Varaždin and 0.59 for NK Osijek.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

24 shots · 1.42 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

NK Varaždin
NK Osijek
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NK Varaždin

1.60 xG created 0.88 xGA

W 2.49 created, 0.95 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
W 1.75 created, 0.72 conceded against HNK Rijeka
L 0.42 created, 2.10 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
W 1.93 created, 0.36 conceded against NK Rudeš
D 1.45 created, 0.30 conceded against NK Istra 1961
D 1.55 created, 0.85 conceded against HNK Gorica

NK Osijek

1.46 xG created 1.44 xGA

W 2.76 created, 0.60 conceded against NK Rudeš
W 1.70 created, 0.92 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
L 0.50 created, 1.66 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
W 1.43 created, 0.88 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
L 0.35 created, 2.66 conceded against HNK Rijeka
W 2.05 created, 1.90 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

NK Varaždin: 2 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged5 won1 lost

Won
Won
Won
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NK Varaždin against NK Osijek before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.00	+13.5%	Won
NK Varaždin not to score	4.33	+9.0%	Won
NK Varaždin at most 1 goal	1.73	+8.2%	Won
Draw	3.30	+7.0%	Won
NK Osijek to win	3.50	+2.2%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	3.75	+1.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Varaždin	38.4%	47.9%	−9.5 pp	2.61
Draw	32.4%	26.8%	+5.6 pp	3.08
NK Osijek	29.2%	25.3%	+3.9 pp	3.42

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Varaždin to score	74.8%	78.3%	−3.5 pp	1.34
NK Varaždin not to score	25.2%	21.7%	+3.5 pp	3.98
NK Osijek to score	69.8%	66.3%	+3.5 pp	1.43
NK Osijek not to score	30.2%	33.7%	−3.5 pp	3.31
Both teams to score	54.1%	53.7%	+0.5 pp	1.85
Both teams not to score	45.9%	46.3%	−0.5 pp	2.18
NK Varaždin 2+ goals	37.3%	46.3%	−9.0 pp	2.68
NK Varaždin at most 1 goal	62.7%	53.7%	+9.0 pp	1.60
NK Osijek 2+ goals	30.3%	33.7%	−3.4 pp	3.30
NK Osijek at most 1 goal	69.7%	66.3%	+3.4 pp	1.44
Over 1.5 goals	73.1%	75.0%	−1.9 pp	1.37
Under 1.5 goals	26.9%	25.0%	+1.9 pp	3.71
Over 2.5 goals	43.3%	52.6%	−9.4 pp	2.31
Under 2.5 goals	56.7%	47.4%	+9.4 pp	1.76

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NK Varaždin sample: 20 matches
NK Osijek sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.