NK Slaven Belupo's recorded results for 2026/2027, newest first, with the available xG behind each score. Compare outcomes with the chances created and conceded, then open a match for more detail.
Results
- Wins – draws – losses (W–D–L)
- 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses
7 pts 6–7 goals −1 GD
Chances
- Provider xG / xGA
- 5.67 – 5.47
- 1.13 – 1.09 per match
- xGD
- +0.20
- +0.04 per match
- xG record
- 1 with the chances, 1 with even chances, 3 against them
Comparable xG: 5 of 5 completed results.
Points vs xPts Model
7 pts 6.7 xPts
+0.3 vs xPts
Matched xPts: 5 of 5 selected results.
Model · How xPts works →Match points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before deductions or sanctions.
Points vs xPts uses only matches with available xPts on both sides of the comparison.
What the results say
Last 5 · All competitions · All venues
NK Slaven Belupo's mixed record matches the chances at both ends. They out-created the opponent in 2 of 5 matches, for +0.20 xG difference overall on 5.67–5.47. Their points total of 7 lands on the model's 6.7 xPts, so the results have followed the chances closely.
Points minus xPts, match by match
Over these 5 results NK Slaven Belupo are 0.26 points above their xPts. The gap was widest at +2.70, against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb on Sun 06/09.
- Points
- 7
- xPts
- 6.74
- Gap
- +0.26
- This match
- Match gap
- Running gap
| Date | Opponent | Points | xPts | Match gap | Running gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 22/08 | HNK Gorica | 3 | 1.47 | +1.53 | +1.53 |
| Sun 30/08 | NK Osijek | 0 | 0.88 | -0.88 | +0.65 |
| Sun 06/09 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 3 | 0.95 | +2.05 | +2.70 |
| Sun 13/09 | HNK Hajduk Split | 0 | 0.91 | -0.91 | +1.79 |
| Fri 18/09 | NK Rudeš | 1 | 2.53 | -1.53 | +0.26 |
Scores and xG
NK Slaven Belupo first
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Match analysis →
Why this label · NK Rudeš, Fri 18/09
The match was drawn although the team recorded a positive xG difference. The outcome was weaker than that chance advantage suggests.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 1
- Post-match model xPts
- 2.52
- Points minus xPts
- -1.52
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · HNK Hajduk Split, Sun 13/09
The team lost and recorded less xG than its opponent. The direction of the result aligns with the chance difference.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 0
- Post-match model xPts
- 0.91
- Points minus xPts
- -0.91
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, Sun 06/09
The team won despite recording less xG than its opponent. That contrast does not make the win impossible or establish why it happened.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 3
- Post-match model xPts
- 0.95
- Points minus xPts
- +2.05
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · NK Osijek, Sun 30/08
The team lost and recorded less xG than its opponent. The direction of the result aligns with the chance difference.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 0
- Post-match model xPts
- 0.88
- Points minus xPts
- -0.88
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · HNK Gorica, Sat 22/08
The team won, while the chance difference was approximately even. The outcome was stronger than that difference alone suggests.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 3
- Post-match model xPts
- 1.47
- Points minus xPts
- +1.53
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated →
Biggest overperformance
HNK Gorica 2:0
· Home xG / xGA 1.07 – 0.93
- Goal difference
- +2
- xGD
- +0.14
- GD minus xGD
- +1.86
Among 5 comparable results.
Open match →
Biggest underperformance
NK Osijek 0:3
· Away xG / xGA 0.88 – 1.43
- Goal difference
- -3
- xGD
- -0.55
- GD minus xGD
- -2.45
Among 5 comparable results.
Open match →
Reading these results
xG is the provider's estimate of chances created; xGA is the opponent's xG. xGD is the difference. Labels compare the recorded outcome with those chances; they are interpretations, not judgments about fairness.
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
How each figure on this page is read
Every xG bar is drawn on one fixed scale: full width is 7.20 xG, the same on every card and in every window, so two cards can be compared by eye. A rarer match above that is capped with a hatched end, and the figure beside the bar still gives its value.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
Goal difference minus xGD says how far a scoreline finished from the chances behind it: a 4:2 won off level chances ran nearly two goals ahead of them. The two callouts under the list name the match that ran furthest each way, and a direction with no result a full goal clear of the chances gets no card rather than a card built from a rounding.
Windows count back from the most recent recorded match, and only matches attached to this club record are included. Home and away mean the provider-designated side, not a verified physical venue. Scores describe recorded play, not shootout advancement. Unverified periods receive no chance comparison.