Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 17:00
20d 12h to kick-offNK Varaždin – NK Slaven Belupo
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- NK Varaždin
- 53%
- Draw
- 30%
- NK Slaven Belupo
- 17%
| NK Varaždin | Draw | NK Slaven Belupo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.89 | 3.37 | 5.73 |
- Total goals
- 2.37
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score
- 50%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans NK Varaždin
53% NK Varaždin to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 8th
- NK Varaždin attack v NK Slaven Belupo defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 8th
- NK Varaždin defence v NK Slaven Belupo attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.50 vs -0.39
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.53 – 0.84
- NK Varaždin v NK Slaven Belupo
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NK Varaždin | NK Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.41 · 6th | 0.93 · 8th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.88 · 3rd | 1.68 · 8th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.53 · 4th | -0.76 · 8th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.80 · 4th | 0.93 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.50 | -0.39 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 39% of the model's distribution.
- NK Varaždin clean sheet
- 41%
- NK Varaždin 2+ goals
- 47%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score: no
- 50%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.3%
- 1:0
- 12.2%
- 2:0
- 11.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Varaždin sample
- 20 matches
- NK Slaven Belupo sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NK Varaždin
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · NK Slaven Belupo
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.