xgEdge

Expected goals

NK Slaven Belupo expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

HNL · after 8 matches · updated 4 Oct

NK Slaven Belupo's attacking and defensive expected goals in HNL 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

NK Slaven Belupo xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.93 xG per match
#8/10
Attack (xG per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2.24
#2 HNK Rijeka 1.65
#3 HNK Hajduk Split 1.52
#4 NK Osijek 1.51
#5 NK Istra 1961 1.44
#6 NK Varaždin 1.41
#7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.05
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 0.93
#9 HNK Gorica 0.87
#10 NK Rudeš 0.60
League avg
1.31
Total
7.41 8 matches
Defence
1.68 xGA per match
#8/10
Defence (xGA per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 HNK Hajduk Split 0.74
#2 HNK Rijeka 0.77
#3 NK Varaždin 0.88
#4 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.91
#5 NK Istra 1961 1.26
#6 NK Osijek 1.28
#7 HNK Gorica 1.37
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 1.68
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.84
#10 NK Rudeš 2.20
League avg
1.31
Total
13.45 8 matches
xG difference
-0.76 xGD per match
#8/10
xG difference (xGD per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb +1.32
#2 HNK Rijeka +0.88
#3 HNK Hajduk Split +0.78
#4 NK Varaždin +0.53
#5 NK Osijek +0.23
#6 NK Istra 1961 +0.19
#7 HNK Gorica -0.50
#8 NK Slaven Belupo -0.76
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb -0.79
#10 NK Rudeš -1.61
League avg
0.00
Total
-6.04 8 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.93 xPts per match
#8/10
Expected points (xPts per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2.23
#2 HNK Rijeka 1.96
#3 HNK Hajduk Split 1.93
#4 NK Varaždin 1.80
#5 NK Osijek 1.53
#6 NK Istra 1961 1.45
#7 HNK Gorica 0.95
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 0.93
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.82
#10 NK Rudeš 0.45
League avg
1.39
Total
7.41 vs 7 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 8 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

NK Slaven Belupo's underlying numbers are among the weakest in HNL. They rank #8 for xG difference at -0.76 per match, from low shot volume and low chance quality. Their 7 goals are 0.41 below 7.41 xG, while 7 points are 0.41 below 7.41 xPts. After only 8 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.87 xG from penalties
7 7.41 -0.41 scored 0.41 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
16 13.45 +2.55 conceded 2.55 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
7 7.41 -0.41 0.41 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

NK Slaven Belupo are 0.41 goals below their xG after 8 matches. The gap was widest at -0.74, against NK Istra 1961 on Sat 15/08.

Goals
7
xG
7.41
Gap
-0.41
Fri 31/07 Sun 09/08 Sat 15/08 Sat 22/08 Sun 30/08 Sun 06/09 Sun 13/09 Fri 18/09 -1 0 +1 -0.49 -0.44 -0.74 +0.19 -0.69 -0.06 -0.42 -0.41 -0.49 +0.05 -0.30 +0.93 -0.88 +0.63 -0.36 +0.01 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
NK Slaven Belupo: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Fri 31/07 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0 0.49 -0.49 -0.49
Sun 09/08 NK Varaždin 1 0.95 +0.05 -0.44
Sat 15/08 NK Istra 1961 0 0.30 -0.30 -0.74
Sat 22/08 HNK Gorica 2 1.07 +0.93 +0.19
Sun 30/08 NK Osijek 0 0.88 -0.88 -0.69
Sun 06/09 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 1.37 +0.63 -0.06
Sun 13/09 HNK Hajduk Split 0 0.36 -0.36 -0.42
Fri 18/09 NK Rudeš 2 1.99 +0.01 -0.41

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

NK Slaven Belupo xG trend

Current form -0.49 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 2 of 8 matches. The worst was against NK Istra 1961 on Sat 15/08 (-2.55).

npxG · last 6
0.85
npxGA · last 6
1.34
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 -2.15 Fri 31/07 -1.54 Sun 09/08 -2.55 Sat 15/08 +0.08 Sat 22/08 -0.56 Sun 30/08 -0.32 Sun 06/09 -0.32 Sun 13/09 +0.75 Fri 18/09 -0.83 season avg
NK Slaven Belupo: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Fri 31/07 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.49 2.64 -2.15 -2.15
Sun 09/08 NK Varaždin 0.95 2.49 -1.54 -1.85
Sat 15/08 NK Istra 1961 0.30 2.85 -2.55 -2.08
Sat 22/08 HNK Gorica 0.95 0.87 +0.08 -1.54
Sun 30/08 NK Osijek 0.88 1.44 -0.56 -1.34
Sun 06/09 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.41 1.73 -0.32 -1.17
Sun 13/09 HNK Hajduk Split 0.36 0.68 -0.32 -1.05
Fri 18/09 NK Rudeš 1.20 0.45 +0.75 -0.83

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.82 npxG and 1.64 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 7 hardest of 10 in HNL
−0.03 xG vs league average
Over 8 league matches
Last 5
number 10 hardest of 10 in HNL
−0.14 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.03 xG vs league average · over 8 matches · number 7 hardest of 10

  1. NK Rudeš Away −0.51
  2. HNK Hajduk Split Away +0.38
  3. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Home −0.39
  4. NK Osijek Away +0.18
  5. HNK Gorica Home −0.34
  6. NK Istra 1961 Away −0.20
  7. NK Varaždin Home +0.13
  8. GNK Dinamo Zagreb Away +0.52

Last 5

−0.14 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 10 hardest of 10

  1. NK Rudeš Away −0.51
  2. HNK Hajduk Split Away +0.38
  3. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Home −0.39
  4. NK Osijek Away +0.18
  5. HNK Gorica Home −0.34

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

NK Slaven Belupo shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. NK Slaven Belupo take 11.5 shots a match (league 13.7) at 0.07 npxG a shot (league 0.09), #7 in HNL for volume and #9 for quality. 67% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 28% of their npxG (league 21%).

Attack

Shot volume
11.5 shots per match
#7/10
Shot volume (shots per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 19.6
#2 NK Osijek 17.6
#3 HNK Rijeka 17.6
#4 HNK Hajduk Split 15.5
#5 NK Varaždin 14.1
#6 NK Istra 1961 13.0
#7 NK Slaven Belupo 11.5
=8 HNK Gorica 9.9
=8 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 9.9
#10 NK Rudeš 9.1
League avg
13.7
Total
92 shots from 8 matches
Chance quality
0.07 npxG per shot
#9/10
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across HNL, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.10
#2 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.10
#3 NK Istra 1961 0.10
#4 HNK Rijeka 0.09
#5 NK Varaždin 0.09
#6 HNK Hajduk Split 0.09
#7 NK Osijek 0.08
#8 HNK Gorica 0.07
#9 NK Slaven Belupo 0.07
#10 NK Rudeš 0.06
League avg
0.09
Total
6.54 npxG from 92 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
16.5 shots per match
#7/10
Shots allowed (shots per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 HNK Hajduk Split 7.5
#2 HNK Rijeka 7.9
#3 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 9.1
#4 NK Varaždin 12.1
#5 NK Osijek 12.6
#6 NK Istra 1961 14.6
#7 NK Slaven Belupo 16.5
#8 HNK Gorica 16.6
#9 NK Rudeš 17.5
#10 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 20.8
League avg
13.7
Total
132 shots allowed from 8 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#9/10
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across HNL, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 NK Varaždin 0.06
#2 HNK Rijeka 0.08
#3 NK Istra 1961 0.08
#4 HNK Gorica 0.08
#5 HNK Hajduk Split 0.09
#6 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.09
#7 NK Osijek 0.09
#8 NK Rudeš 0.10
#9 NK Slaven Belupo 0.10
#10 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.10
League avg
0.09
Total
13.15 npxGA from 132 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

67% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 62 of 92 shots over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

64% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 84 of 132 shots allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

72% open play · 28% set pieces

League avg 21% set pieces

From 1.8 of 6.5 npxG over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

82% open play · 18% set pieces

League avg 21% set pieces

From 2.3 of 13.1 npxG allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

NK Slaven Belupo home and away xG

NK Slaven Belupo per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 3 5
xG / match 1.13 0.80
xGA / match 1.79 1.62
xGD / match -0.66 -0.81
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.95 0.91

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every NK Slaven Belupo match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 5

Matches
5
xG / match
1.13
xGA / match
1.09
xGD / match
+0.04
Points
7 of 15
  1. Fri 18/09 NK Rudeš A Best underlying xG 1.99 P xGA 0.48 xGD +1.51
  2. Sun 13/09 HNK Hajduk Split A xG 0.36 xGA 0.68 xGD -0.32
  3. Sun 06/09 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb H Weakest underlying xG 1.37 xGA 1.95 xGD -0.58
  4. Sun 30/08 NK Osijek A xG 0.88 xGA 1.43 xGD -0.55
  5. Sat 22/08 HNK Gorica H xG 1.07 xGA 0.93 xGD +0.14

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

NK Slaven Belupo in HNL

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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