Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeOud-Heverlee Leuven 2:0 RAAL La Louvière
Oud-Heverlee Leuven were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was RAAL La Louvière's attack: 0.47 xG against 1.17 projected (−0.70). Oud-Heverlee Leuven produced 0.86 xG against 1.53 projected (−0.67).
Goals
- 32' Wouter George Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 0.21 xG chance 1–0
- 89' William Balikwisha Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 0.08 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- 44% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- RAAL La Louvière
- 26%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
RAAL La Louvière produced 0.70 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 7
- On target
- 4
- 2
- Inside the box
- 9
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 0.63
- 0.20
- Set-piece xG
- 0.24
- 0.28
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.86 for Oud-Heverlee Leuven and 0.48 for RAAL La Louvière.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
17 shots · 1.35 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- RAAL La Louvière
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.04 xG created 2.11 xGA
- L 1.30 created, 3.15 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
- L 0.72 created, 2.92 conceded against Club Brugge KV
- L 1.89 created, 1.36 conceded against Standard Liège
- L 0.52 created, 0.98 conceded against KAA Gent
- L 0.88 created, 2.68 conceded against SK Beveren
- D 0.92 created, 1.60 conceded against Cercle Brugge
1.42 xG created 1.78 xGA
- L 0.74 created, 3.05 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
- L 0.54 created, 1.18 conceded against KAA Gent
- L 1.07 created, 1.15 conceded against Standard Liège
- D 2.17 created, 2.11 conceded against KV Mechelen
- L 0.44 created, 2.40 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
- W 3.58 created, 0.81 conceded against KV Kortrijk
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | +7.8% | Lost |
| RAAL La Louvière 2+ goals | 3.25 | +7.3% | Lost |
| RAAL La Louvière to score | 1.44 | +3.5% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | +2.1% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | +1.6% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.40 | +0.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 44.1% | 46.9% | −2.8 pp | 2.27 |
| Draw | 29.7% | 26.9% | +2.8 pp | 3.37 |
| RAAL La Louvière | 26.2% | 26.1% | +0.0 pp | 3.82 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven to score | 81.1% | 76.6% | +4.5 pp | 1.23 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven not to score | 18.9% | 23.4% | −4.5 pp | 5.29 |
| RAAL La Louvière to score | 71.7% | 64.5% | +7.2 pp | 1.39 |
| RAAL La Louvière not to score | 28.3% | 35.5% | −7.2 pp | 3.53 |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 52.0% | +7.9 pp | 1.67 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.1% | 48.0% | −7.9 pp | 2.49 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2+ goals | 46.8% | 44.3% | +2.6 pp | 2.14 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven at most 1 goal | 53.2% | 55.7% | −2.6 pp | 1.88 |
| RAAL La Louvière 2+ goals | 33.0% | 29.1% | +3.9 pp | 3.03 |
| RAAL La Louvière at most 1 goal | 67.0% | 70.9% | −3.9 pp | 1.49 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% | 73.1% | +6.2 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.6% | 26.9% | −6.2 pp | 4.84 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 48.7% | +3.4 pp | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 51.3% | −3.4 pp | 2.09 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven sample
- 20 matches
- RAAL La Louvière sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.