Friday, 09/10/2026 at 18:00
5d 17h to kick-offRoyale Union Saint-Gilloise – Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- 63%
- Draw
- 25%
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- 12%
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise | Draw | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.59 | 4.03 | 8.25 |
- Total goals
- 2.67
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 52%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
63% Royale Union Saint-Gilloise to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 9th
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise attack v Oud-Heverlee Leuven defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 15th
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise defence v Oud-Heverlee Leuven attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.07 vs -0.70
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.88 – 0.79
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise v Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Royale Union Saint-Gilloise | Oud-Heverlee Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.09 · 2nd | 1.01 · 16th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.02 · 3rd | 1.88 · 16th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.06 · 1st | -0.87 · 16th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.98 · 2nd | 0.86 · 18th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.07 | -0.70 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise clean sheet
- 42%
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2+ goals
- 58%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score: no
- 48%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.9%
- 2:0
- 12.4%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise sample
- 20 matches
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.